Unless a miracle occurs, the 2020s will prove to be as its ominous beginning warned: a lost decade, not just for a handful of economies but for dozens of developing ones. Amid one of the most intense clusters of global shocks since the 1970s, nearly one in two developing economies since 2019 has failed to deliver on the most basic promise of development: narrowing the income gap with the world's most prosperous economies. To see a light at the end of the tunnel, we will have to wait until the 2030s.

This new decade is about to begin, offering a historic opportunity that the world cannot afford to miss. As the latest edition of the World Bank Group's Global Economic Prospects report shows, the losses of the 2020s have been severe. Global growth this year is expected to slow to its weakest pace outside outright recessions in nearly two decades, at a meager 2.5%. By end-2026, a quarter of developing economies, a third of low-income economies, and half of fragile and conflict-affected economies will be poorer than they were in 2019 on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the 24 poorest economies, 19 still rely on foreign aid to secure their food supplies, at a time when the world has rarely been less inclined to give than it is today. Meanwhile, government debt in developing economies has risen to unprecedented record levels, while private investment growth during the 2020s has fallen to less than half of what it was in the 2010s.

Yet three opportunities loom that could make the 2030s a golden era for job creation and growth. The first, which cannot be missed, is the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence. Even if it does not live up to the hype, most estimates suggest it will boost global productivity rates beyond the modest average recorded in the 2020s.

But if managed well and its positive potential maximized, our estimates indicate that global growth in the 2030s will exceed the average of the 2000s. In short, AI could usher in the most prosperous decades the world has seen since the 1970s.

The second opportunity is energy security. The major conflicts of this decade have focused policymakers' attention on this area. The clean energy sector now accounts for two-thirds of total global energy investment. In 2025, global clean energy investment reached a record $2.2 trillion, far surpassing investment in fossil fuels. Most of the increase in clean energy spending over the past five years—amounting to 70%—comes from net fossil fuel importing countries aiming to bolster their energy security.

In short, clean energy today is as much a necessity for national security as it is a priority for global development. If this convergence continues, it could help accelerate economic growth in developing economies by creating jobs, expanding access to affordable energy, and strengthening their resilience to future shocks.

The third opportunity is regional trade. Globalization may have lost its luster in some parts of the world, but regional trade is thriving. The number of regional trade agreements has risen during the 2020s, from just over 300 in 2020 to nearly 400 today. These agreements now collectively account for 60% of global trade, up from about 40% in 1990, making them a powerful complement to the rules-based global system as it declines. Regional trade is increasingly strengthening links between developing economies and providing much-needed predictability, not only through tariffs but also through clear rules on investment, standards, and services.

Seizing these opportunities will not be easy. AI, for example, relies on digital infrastructure, computing power, and technical expertise—resources that remain concentrated in richer economies. Developing economies account for less than a quarter of global data center capacity, while the world's 24 poorest economies represent less than 0.1%.

Furthermore, leading AI models have a major weakness: the languages of nearly half the world's population remain poorly represented in the data used to train these models. Unless these gaps are closed, the AI revolution could widen the gap between rich and poor countries rather than narrow it.

Similar gaps exist in energy and trade. Since 2022, rising borrowing costs, increasing inflation, and difficulties in connecting new renewable energy projects to electricity grids have slowed the growth of clean energy investment. Moreover, this investment remains uneven: China, for example, accounts for nearly a third of the global total. But smaller economies with high debt levels and tight government budgets, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, have struggled to mobilize the necessary capital for clean energy infrastructure. In regional trade, developing economies still have significant gains to make. For example, they could substantially increase their trade with neighboring economies by cutting red tape at borders, aligning rules, and easing access to finance for businesses, especially small enterprises. At the same time, investment treaties should evolve from merely protecting investors to stimulating investment while promoting broader development and sustainability goals.

Moreover, all this must happen while governments manage the immediate fallout from the conflict in the Middle East and return to the unfinished work of economic recovery. Debt levels must be reduced, inflation contained, and food insecurity reversed. Countries must get back to building the fundamentals for sustained job creation and higher living standards: stronger infrastructure, a healthier and more skilled workforce, an investment-friendly regulatory environment, and deeper sources of private capital. The modern world has rarely faced challenges that require such sustained global coordination and support.

The World Bank Group was created precisely for such a moment. In response to the historic setbacks of the 2020s, our response has been on a historic scale: during the five-year period ending June 30, 2025, we provided financing commitments to help developing countries that exceeded what we had provided in any previous five-year period in our history.