Oil extended gains after the US downplayed the likelihood of talks with Iran soon and threatened broader strikes, as risks to global supply spread beyond the Middle East to the Black Sea.

Brent rose to trade near $92 a barrel, gaining for a fourth day, while Nymex crude topped $85.

Washington carried out attacks on Tehran for the 11th consecutive day, aiming to weaken its ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that it remains open despite the attacks. Oil futures rose this month as fighting escalated, with three tankers hit in the waterway in recent days.

Mon, 20 2026

Ukraine crisis adds to pressure

Outside the region, the market is also dealing with a series of attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Russian Black Sea coast, which ships most of Kazakhstan's crude oil. The US said Tuesday that Iran badly wants to meet, but we are not interested. Tehran denied claims that it seeks talks with Washington. Oil prices have swung repeatedly on prospects of escalation and de-escalation.

Infrastructure CEO Jay Hatfield said, 'Our view is that we will more or less stay in a price range of $80 to $90, depending on the news flow,' adding, 'If the Red Sea effectively closes, that would be a threat we haven't seen yet, and could push us above $100.'

Brent could top $100 a barrel before the end of the year if the conflict drags on and commercial inventories in OECD countries decline, according to Bernstein. Goldman Sachs also flagged the possibility of a return to three-digit prices, although that is not the bank's base case.

Gold tops $4,100

Gold extended gains, supported by buying on price dips, even as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept the market under pressure.

The precious metal rose as much as 1% to trade above $4,100 an ounce, extending gains of nearly 2% in the previous session. Silver also rose to near $60 an ounce.

The rally came as bond yields remained elevated, and the renewed hostilities between the US and Iran have shown no sign of resolution so far.

The momentum has already attracted fresh inflows into exchange-traded funds, with total holdings rising 7.4 metric tons on Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg tally, the largest daily inflow in over a month.

Justin Lane, analyst at Global X ETFs, said, pointing to a sharp drop in volatility to levels last seen in early June: 'This may be a price breakout following the collapse in volatility over the past few days.' He added: 'Buyers seem to have successfully defended the $4,000 level, and selling pressure has subsided.'

Tue, 30 2026

War and interest rates weigh

The conflict between the US and Iran has helped end a multi-year rally in gold, with the metal falling about a quarter from its peak near $5,600 an ounce in January. Traders are balancing rising energy prices and weak US economic data while looking for clues on the Fed's interest rate path. High borrowing costs are a negative for non-yielding gold.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that gold is struggling to find direction, with central bank purchases supporting prices while ETFs sold holdings on rate hike concerns. However, they see room for these funds to return to the market amid expectations that the Fed will eventually keep rates unchanged this year and resume cuts next year. Analysts forecast gold to reach $4,450 and silver to hit $65.40 by the fourth quarter.