Oil declines despite recording weekly gains of about 5%
The prices of the two benchmark crudes, Brent and US West Texas Intermediate, rose by 5.50% and 4% respectively as tensions escalated.
Oil prices fell at the close of last week's trading, the day before yesterday, after a new round of clashes between the United States and Iran, amid traders' optimism about resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices ended the session with a sharp rise during the week by more than 5%.
Brent crude futures settled at $76.01 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.38%. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $71.41 per barrel, down 67 cents, or 0.93%.
During the week, Brent rose by about 5.50%, and West Texas Intermediate crude rose by about 4% following attacks on several tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. This was followed by an exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran, and Washington's decision to revoke a general license allowing the sale of Iranian oil.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said: "This market is ready and poised to take advantage of good news, or at least the absence of bad news," and the escalation appears unlikely to worsen.
With the cessation of mutual airstrikes and a promise to resume talks between the United States and Iran next week, traders looked forward to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But surprisingly, oil prices are retreating after rising to near $76 per barrel, even with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed again, mainly due to confidence that US military force will not allow the strait to remain closed for long, as Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, mentioned in a morning note.
The developments delayed the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was transporting about 20% of the world's daily oil and gas supplies before the war began on February 28. Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said the absence of new US strikes on Iran overnight is likely to negatively impact oil prices, although reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz limit the potential decline.
Ship-tracking data showed that LNG tankers have crossed the strait in recent days, but overall daily traffic has slowed. US President Donald Trump stated this week that he does not believe the war will resume, and that "anything that happens will end quickly."
Daniel Hynes, commodity strategist at ANZ, said: "Despite the US escalating its attacks on military sites in Iran, the market drew some reassurance from the Trump administration's decision to avoid targeting Iran's energy infrastructure."
In a related context, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecasts for Russian oil production due to Ukrainian attacks on the country's energy infrastructure, according to the agency on Friday. Russian gasoline production fell to a level equivalent to only about 65% of the seasonal average consumption after Ukrainian drone attacks caused shutdowns at major refineries, according to two industry sources.
Meanwhile, Americans' suffering from rising fuel prices worsened after the escalation of fighting between the US and Iran, which drove up oil prices. US motorists saw a new increase in gasoline prices after weeks of steady decline, as renewed fighting between the US and Iran pushed crude oil prices to their largest weekly gain in eight weeks.
Data from the American Automobile Association showed that disruptions in the global refining system and the strength of US fuel exports increased supply tightness, and average gasoline prices at the pump rose by 6 cents this week to $3.88 per gallon on Friday. This was the largest weekly increase since mid-May.
Alex Hodes, director of energy market strategy at brokerage StoneX, said: "Gasoline prices rose in tandem with the sharp rise in crude oil prices after several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked."
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-conflict levels, raising fears that any disruption, however minor, could affect global fuel markets. Trump has pressured gasoline retailers to lower prices further. The administration urged the US Department of Justice to investigate potential gasoline price manipulation, and recently launched a new initiative to reduce prices by offering discounted gasoline at some locations in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Hodes added that crude oil supply concerns are only part of the problem, pointing to unplanned refinery outages in both Russia and the United States, which have tightened fuel supplies. Russia's refining sector has been disrupted by repeated attacks that reduced fuel output and exacerbated shortages. Moscow cut diesel exports and increased gasoline imports, leading to a global fuel supply crunch and higher prices.
Original source: Al-Riyadh
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