Oil jumped and gold fell as the US and Iran exchanged new strikes, with both sides making conflicting statements about whether the Strait of Hormuz remained open.

Brent crude traded near $80 a barrel after rising 5.4% last week, while Nymex crude rose to $74.

Iran said the strait would now be closed 'until further notice,' a claim denied by the US, which said it launched further strikes to ensure freedom of navigation through the waterway.

Sun, 12 2026

The strikes on Sunday afternoon were the fourth carried out by the US in a week, saying they were in response to an Iranian attack on a container ship flying the flag of Cyprus.

Uncertainty is reintroducing a war premium into crude prices, which had erased gains after a temporary peace agreement between the two sides raised the prospect of more supplies from the Arabian Gulf.

The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the renewed escalation threatens to disrupt efforts to rebuild depleted global oil stocks later this year, a reminder of what is at stake for the global economy if the conflict continues.

Sol Cavonic, chief energy analyst at MST Marquee, said, 'The renewed tensions are still an escalation, but far from all-out hostilities,' adding, 'We are likely to see oil prices rise gradually as long as the strikes continue and transit through the strait becomes more cautious.'

Sun, 12 2026

Escalating fighting brings war premium back to markets

European gas rose amid fears that the escalation would disrupt shipments from Arabian Gulf producers, with futures climbing 2.7% after rising 8% last week. Traffic through the strait, which carries a fifth of crude and gas supplies, was nearly non-existent on Monday, extending the slowdown that has persisted since tensions flared last week.

The attack on a Kuwaiti oil facility represents the first direct strike on energy infrastructure in weeks, and if the conflict widens to target energy infrastructure more broadly in the region, oil prices could head toward $100.

Fri, 10 2026

Gold prices fall as conflict renews

Gold fell after the US and Iran exchanged strikes, once again raising the likelihood of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. The metal dropped about 1.5% to near $4,060 an ounce, matching its entire percentage loss from last week, while silver fell 1.8% to $59 an ounce.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, released last week, showed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates, though they ultimately supported keeping them unchanged. Overall, the minutes reflected growing concern among US central bank officials about inflation, while concerns about the labor market eased slightly. Higher borrowing costs are typically a headwind for gold, which pays no interest.

Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets, said, 'Geopolitical tensions have sent another shockwave through an already fragile gold market,' adding, 'Unless the fighting around Hormuz subsides significantly and turns a new page for precious metals, high oil prices, firmer yields, and a stronger dollar could keep gold under pressure this week.'

Sun, 12 2026

Bullish bets decline ahead of Warsh testimony

Gold has fallen by more than a fifth since the start of the Iran war in late February, as a wave of profit-taking ended a three-year rally and briefly pushed the metal below $4,000 for the first time since November. However, there is still little evidence that investors are building large-scale short positions in anticipation of further declines.

The latest tensions come ahead of Kevin Warsh's first appearance before Congress as Fed chairman on Tuesday. The hearing held by the House Financial Services Committee in Washington will be preceded by the release of June consumer price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.