Natural gas prices in Europe jumped to their highest level in four months, as tensions escalated in the Middle East, raising fears of supply shortages during the upcoming winter.

The benchmark Dutch natural gas price briefly exceeded 60 euros per megawatt-hour on Monday, approaching its peak recorded at the start of the US-Iran conflict, after the US expanded its air strikes and Iran responded with raids on Gulf states.

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Analysts at independent commodity information services firm ICIS said that Europe's gas supplies are under pressure this winter, as the conflict has delayed the expected recovery of Qatari liquefied natural gas exports during the summer storage season. Andreas Schroeder, head of energy analytics at ICIS, said: 'If winter turns out to be colder than expected, it will significantly increase the cost of achieving the European Union's goal of storing 80% of gas needs.'

ICIS added that if the gas price stabilizes at around 60 euros per megawatt-hour, it could mean 'costly government intervention to ensure security of supply,' although its models indicate that European gas storage could reach target levels by late November.

European gas storage is currently less than 54% full, compared with 64% at the same time last year.

European countries may have to pay around 54 euros per megawatt-hour this autumn to refill storage, potentially reaching 60 euros per megawatt-hour if the start of winter is colder.

The disruption of Qatari LNG exports has already affected gas supplies, with ICIS cutting its global LNG supply forecast for this year from 441 million tons to 431 million tons.

The latest escalation, which comes as diplomats claim talks are still ongoing, again threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas supplies passed before the Iran conflict erupted.