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Economic analysts suggest that the European Central Bank will keep its key interest rates at current levels until next September to raise them for the last time this year.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Bloomberg News, all participants expect the European Central Bank's Governing Council to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on Thursday, then raise them by a quarter of a percentage point at its meeting in September to 2.5%, when policymakers will release their new quarterly forecasts.

ECB: The bank is monitoring the impact of the Iran war on the economy

Most experts also expect the European Central Bank to stop tightening monetary policy at this level, after the US-Israeli war against Iran led to higher oil prices and the worst inflation wave in the eurozone since 2023.

At the same time, signals from the central bank itself do not create certainty among analysts, given the volatility of events in the Middle East, which have seen shifts over the past month from a fragile ceasefire to renewed hostilities.

Dennis Shen, a lecturer at the Berlin School of International Management at the Technical University of Berlin, says: "The main question now is whether the renewed US-Iran tensions will be temporary," adding that a limited crisis would support keeping interest rates on hold, but further disruptions could lead to a second round of inflation.

Bloomberg noted that in light of the monetary policy of other major central banks, an interest rate hike in September could cement the European Central Bank's position as the most hawkish among the G7 central banks.

Last month, the ECB became the first bank in this group to raise interest rates in the wake of the US-Iran war.

Christian Todtmann, an economist at DekaBank, expects attention to focus on any messages contained in the ECB's statement after Thursday's meeting.

He said: "The supply shock is affecting the economy. The ECB will make it clear that it is monitoring the situation, that it is in good shape, and ready to act if necessary."

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