The El Niño climate phenomenon continues to cast its shadow over global coffee markets, amid fears that prices will continue to rise over the next two years due to production disruptions in major exporting countries.

The warming of the Pacific Ocean is reflected on land in the form of droughts and floods that directly affect agricultural crops. This has led to a decline in production in Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica beans, while Vietnam, the largest producer of Robusta, faces droughts that pressure output. Coffee crops in Colombia, Ethiopia, and China are also facing similar climate challenges.

With lower production and declining stocks, purchasing operations in markets are increasing in anticipation of supply shortages, pushing prices higher even before an actual supply deficit occurs. Coffee prices are experiencing sharp fluctuations, rising by about 30% in one month coinciding with the confirmation of the return of El Niño.

The scene underscores how closely commodity markets are linked to climate change, as the effects of weather phenomena move from fields to roasters, then to cafés, ultimately reaching the consumer who bears the cost of the higher-priced cup of coffee.