The International Energy Agency warned on Friday that the latest escalation in confrontations between the United States and Iran could undermine its expectations of a large surplus in the oil market next year, as global supplies rose in June with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but remained below pre-war levels.

The agency added that global oil markets found relief last month after a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran helped reopen the strait, whose effective closure during the peak of the biggest oil supply crisis in history disrupted crude oil flows that at times reached about 14 million barrels per day.

It stated that global oil supplies rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remained about 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

The agency added that it expects global supplies to grow by 7.5 million barrels per day next year, but this scenario depends on improved tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

It said, "However, the escalation of hostilities on July 7 and 8 casts doubt on the outlook and could undermine the scenario of the market shifting to a surplus next year."