Oil Falls and Gold Drops as Supply Increases and Dollar Strengthens
Oil prices fell during early trading today (Monday), after OPEC+ agreed to increase production targets starting next August, coinciding with the recovery of exports from major producers through the Strait of Hormuz, which boosted expectations of increased supplies in global markets.
Brent futures fell 0.33% to $71.88 per barrel.
Brent crude futures fell by 24 cents, or 0.33%, to $71.88 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $68.58 per barrel, and US crude contracts were not settled on Friday due to the US Independence Day holiday.
Both benchmarks ended last week virtually unchanged, after weeks of decline, as investors monitored developments in talks between the United States and Iran and their impact on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the return of Gulf oil exports to higher levels.
The OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, agreed to increase production targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, continuing the increases approved in June and July.
Nevertheless, analysts believe the impact of the decision may be limited, as the US-Israeli war with Iran had disrupted exports from several major producers, before Gulf countries began gradually restoring export levels after shipping resumed.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said the increase was in line with market expectations, but noted that some countries continuing to exceed production quotas limits the impact of these increases at present.
In precious metals markets, gold prices fell after hitting a two-week high, as the US dollar edged up, while expectations of a slowdown in the pace of US interest rate hikes limited the yellow metal's losses.
Gold in spot transactions fell 0.4% to $4160.33 per ounce.
Gold in spot transactions fell 0.4% to $4160.33 per ounce, after earlier reaching its highest level since June 22, while US gold futures for August delivery rose 1.1% to $4172 per ounce.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the strength of the dollar continues to pressure gold, noting that investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting minutes this week for clearer indications on monetary policy direction.
The dollar rose about 0.1%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, as the yellow metal ended last week with gains of more than 2%, after data showed a clear slowdown in US job growth in June, with downward revisions for the previous two months, which boosted expectations of a slowdown in monetary tightening.
According to the FedWatch tool, market expectations for a rate hike in September fell to around 55% from over 60% before the jobs data release, providing relative support for gold, which yields no interest.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecast that gold demand will be lower than previous estimates, setting a price ceiling of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth quarter.
As for other precious metals, silver fell 1% to $61.77 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.3% to $1632.80, and palladium declined 0.5% to $1267.65 per ounce.
Original source: Akhbaar24
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