Oil fluctuated in a narrow range, with continued flows via the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ signaling an increase in supplies.

Brent crude traded below $72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $69. Oil and gas shipments via the US-protected passage in the waterway showed signs of recovery on Sunday, a day after several vessels made sudden turns and changed routes in this vital corridor.

Separately, OPEC+ members supported another modest increase in quotas for next month, as seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to add 188,000 barrels per day, a further easing of restrictions imposed several years ago. For now, those additional barrels remain theoretical, but the group's decision signals a desire to add output as conditions continue to normalize.

Hormuz flows and the return of supplies put pressure on oil.

Brent crude collapsed 30% in the second quarter, with Washington and Tehran agreeing to a temporary peace deal, paving the way for a rapid, albeit incomplete, resumption of traffic via Hormuz.

In these circumstances, Wall Street banks expect prices to have room for further declines in the second half of the year, with Citigroup Inc signaling a possible return to the $60 range by year-end.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets LLC, including Helima Croft, wrote in a note that 'OPEC countries affected by the war are in a rebuilding position when it comes to production and exports.' They added: 'However, we believe there is very limited appetite for a supply-driven price collapse.'

Sun, 05 2026

Major Gulf producers have been ramping up production at a rapid pace. Saudi exports have already jumped to levels close to pre-war levels, with the kingdom passing its tankers through Hormuz. The UAE, which earlier withdrew from OPEC, has also restored flows.

Anticipation of regional crude prices.

Traders will watch this week for the release of official selling prices from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other producers as they try to bring more products back to market. For July, Riyadh cut the premium on its flagship crude to Asia to $9.50 a barrel, down from $15.50 in June.

In signs of increasing near-term market flexibility, the time spreads for benchmark crudes Brent and Dubai flipped to a bearish pattern, with near-term contracts trading at a discount to longer-dated ones. Many grades in the physical market are also cheaper than the underlying benchmarks.