Declining birth rates worldwide have raised widespread concerns about their economic repercussions, with expectations that they would lead to slower growth and reduced innovation. But a new study has concluded that the reality may be the opposite.

According to a study by Daron Acemoglu, winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics, along with David Autor, Kylan Byrne, and Andrew Scott, population aging and decline have historically contributed to raising economic output per worker, without leaving a negative impact on total GDP.

The study explains that workers and companies turn to technology to compensate for the shrinking workforce, leading to increased productivity per worker.

Sun, 28 2026

Declining birth rates and increasing GDP

The researchers wrote in the study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): 'Our findings challenge the prevailing pessimistic view; declining birth rates, and the resulting population aging and decline, have led to an increase in GDP per worker, rather than a decrease.'

They added that this increase 'was large enough to fully offset the negative effect of the decline in population, so that total GDP remained virtually unchanged.'

The study showed that birth rates have declined in all continents over the past 70 years. Globally, the birth rate dropped from 3.78 births per 100 people in 1950 to 1.71 births last year. According to the study, each one percentage point decline in the birth rate was associated with a 26.8% increase in GDP per worker.

The researchers pointed out that 'when comparing country data, declining birth rates lead to higher total factor productivity, increased capital stock, a shift toward high-tech industry exports, and an increase in patent filings for labor-saving technologies.'

High-tech industries

In the United States, this effect was reflected in workers moving to high-tech industries and an increase in patents for innovations that reduce reliance on labor.

Tue, 30 2026

The researchers believe that 'this technological response is what explains the positive relationship between declining birth rates and the subsequent boom in economic growth.'

They also tested other hypotheses that might explain rising productivity amid declining birth rates, such as increased female labor force participation or accelerated transition from agriculture to industry, but they found no evidence that these factors had a significant impact.

Daron Acemoglu and David Autor are professors of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), while Kylan Byrne is a PhD student in economics at the same institute, and Andrew Scott is a professor of economics at London Business School.