UniCredit Opens Door to Negotiations with Commerzbank After Raising Profit Forecasts
UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel said the Italian bank is ready to enter talks with the German government and employee representatives of Commerzbank.
Andrea Orcel, CEO of UniCredit, announced the Italian bank's readiness to begin talks with the German government and Commerzbank employee representatives, following its acquisition of a 48% stake in the German lender, and alongside the announcement of strong financial results that coincided with raising its profit forecasts.
This development comes amid growing mergers and acquisitions in the European banking sector, as UniCredit seeks to expand outside Italy.
UniCredit began investing in Commerzbank in 2024, stirring resentment in German circles. Berlin viewed the Italian bank's moves as hostile and backed Commerzbank's efforts to maintain its independence, according to Reuters.
Orcel said in an interview with CNBC: "I think the positive side of Commerzbank's refusal to enter negotiations is that we haven't made any concessions."
Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp has repeatedly confirmed that she personally informed UniCredit of her readiness to open negotiations.
Orcel added: "We were able to achieve control potential without making any concessions, as usually happens in any deal. So we are now fully open."
On Thursday, UniCredit reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations for the second quarter, driven by higher commission income, and issued higher profit forecasts for 2026 and 2028.
The bank canceled a €4.75 billion ($5.43 billion) share buyback plan, which had been suspended pending the outcome of the offer, noting that its investment in Commerzbank would yield a 15% return, a level exceeding the expected return from the share buyback.
Since taking the helm of UniCredit in 2021, Orcel has relied heavily on share buybacks to support the stock price, though returns from these operations typically decline as the share value rises.
The bank's net profit rose to €2.9 billion in the April-to-June period, surpassing the average analyst estimate of €2.8 billion, according to estimates compiled by the bank.
UniCredit now expects its 2026 revenue to exceed €11 billion, compared with its previous forecast of a similar or higher result, and expects revenue to rise to more than €13 billion in 2028.
The bank clarified that these forecasts do not include potential integration costs or the full completion of a Commerzbank merger. The cancellation of the share buyback plan will also allow the Italian bank to maintain its core capital ratio at 13% of assets by year-end, despite the expected negative impact of the Commerzbank integration, after the process resulted in a larger-than-expected stake acquisition.
UniCredit said all necessary approvals to complete the step could be obtained in the last quarter of the year, earlier than previously expected.
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The raising of profit forecasts reflects management's confidence in the bank's performance due to growth in fee income. The market expects potential negotiations to lead to a restructuring of Commerzbank, despite opposition from the German government. The cancellation of the €4.75 billion share buyback plan also redirects capital toward investment in Commerzbank, which is expected to yield a 15% return. Investors are closely watching the developments in this case, which could reshape the German banking landscape.
Original source: Asharq Al-Awsat
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