Warsh Testimony and Inflation Data Shape Fed's July Decision
Kevin Warsh is preparing for his first appearance before Congress as Federal Reserve chairman, and over two days of testimony, he will discuss new inflation data in America with lawmakers.
The hearing by the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday at 10 a.m. Washington time is preceded by the release of June consumer price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then Kevin Warsh will testify before a Senate committee on Wednesday, shortly after the bureau releases producer price data.
Wed, 10 2026
Expected easing of US inflation
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the two reports to show some easing of pressures after price increases between March and May.
The recent decline in gasoline prices likely contributed to a slowdown in the consumer price index, which may record its first monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
But the producer price index may show continued escalation of inflation pressures in the early stages of the production chain, as the repercussions of the energy shock from the Iran war continue to transmit to the economy.
Economists expect the annual rate of change in the core index, which excludes food and energy, to accelerate to 5.2% from 4.9%.
Tue, 07 2026
Return of Fed officials' remarks
A number of other Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak during the coming week, signaling that the calm that had settled over the central bank after Warsh took office may be starting to recede.
Key expected remarks include a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday, comments by New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Wednesday, and speeches by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday.
Upcoming US data also includes retail sales figures on Thursday, followed by industrial production, housing starts, and consumer confidence data on Friday.
Andrew Sach, senior US economist at Bloomberg Economics, said: "Markets are currently pricing in a 24% probability of a rate hike in July, a rate so low that it's hard to believe the Fed will actually move then, and raising this probability significantly would likely require a strong inflation report and a clearly hawkish tone from the chairman on Tuesday, both of which we consider unlikely."
Fri, 10 2026
Expectations for rate hold in Canada
In Canada, monetary policymakers are widely expected to keep the key interest rate at 2.25% for the sixth meeting on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada continues to balance downward pressures on inflation from trade disruptions with the United States and upward momentum from the conflict in the Middle East.
High gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to 3.2%, despite core inflation indicators remaining low.
Existing home sales and housing starts in June may show continued improvement, extending a gradual recovery after a long period of weakness. Although the economy contracted for two consecutive quarters, recent data point to a rebound in the second quarter.
On another front, events expected this week include a possible rate hike in Korea, growth data in China, and the annual Mansion House speeches in Britain.
Original source: Aleqtisadiah
Comments (0)
Be the first to comment.