Where is the New Wave of Nationalization Heading?
Government takeovers of private projects and resources are proceeding at the fastest pace in 50 years. Looking back at the numerous nationalization waves of the last century, this shift will reshape the global economic landscape.
Since 2020, governments across different continents have moved to nationalize assets owned by their citizens and foreign investors. France and Germany have acquired companies in the utilities and electricity sectors. France placed Europe's largest shipyard under government control. The United Kingdom nationalized railways and the steel industry.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Russia has seized ports, factories, and consumer companies worth over $48 billion. The United States acquired a controlling stake in the only domestic producer of rare earth elements. A growing number of countries have moved to seize foreign-owned resources such as lithium, gold, uranium, nickel, and even palm oil. Despite controversy over valuations of these assets, the value of assets nationalized between 2016 and 2026 alone is estimated between $239 billion and $544 billion.
The driving forces behind these acquisitions include geopolitical instability, commodity market disruptions, and the development of renewable energy. With an increasing number of governments adopting interventionist economic policies, there are no signs of the current nationalization wave receding. These acquisitions will alter the path of global economic and financial integration without slowing it; indeed, they may reshape international trade and investment patterns in the long term.
This is the fourth major wave of nationalization in the past hundred years. The pace and timing of nationalizations typically reflect a mix of political necessity, monetary conditions, and capital mobility.
The first wave occurred in the 1930s during the Great Depression, and the second wave began in the late 1940s as many countries built mixed economies in the aftermath of World War II. The 1970s saw a third wave of nationalizations driven by decolonization, the end of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system, energy shocks, and inflationary pressures.
Nationalizations take many forms and have various motivations. Not all are assertions of state ownership. In some cases, the state's role was limited to facilitating the transfer of asset ownership from one private owner to another through forced sales. Some acquisitions are outright confiscation, while others represent expropriation with compensation. However, the common denominator is the use of political and legal tools to subject private property to national control and redraw the relationship between the state and capital.
What distinguishes the escalating nationalization wave in the third decade of the 21st century? It is worth looking back at the history of the previous three waves, each of which exceeded the one before.
The First Wave: The 1930s
Global economic integration from the 1870s to the 1930s rested on two pillars: relatively free trade and the international gold standard. These policies paved the way for large flows of foreign investment. Wealthy economies such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom accumulated massive stocks of capital abroad ranging from 50% to 160% of their GDP.
Although World War I eroded much of these cross-border capital investments, the conflict did not undermine global market integration. Instead, it redirected the world economy toward American growth in the 1920s, when international investment and trade expanded again under a revived gold standard.
The Great Depression brought an end to free trade and capital flows and unleashed the first global wave of nationalization. Starting in 1928-1929, a series of crises unfolded first in commodity prices, then in stock markets and global trade, and finally in the international monetary system.
To avert a collapse of the financial system, several countries took over all or part of their banking systems. Between 1931 and 1935, the United States nationalized about a third of the financial system's capital, and more than half of bank capital became state-owned in Germany. From 1931 to 1933, Italy nationalized 20% of private industrial and financial assets. State ownership expanded in France, which nationalized aircraft manufacturing and railways; in the United Kingdom, which nationalized coal mines; and in Bolivia and Mexico, which seized foreign-owned oil companies.
These measures were often taken in response to an emergency crisis, and some were reversed later. However, their adoption in the most advanced economies of the era helped legitimize them across developing economies. Moreover, global trade and cross-border lending rates fell sharply, and many governments imposed capital controls. These developments allowed nationalizations to proceed at relatively low cost, without fear of capital flight or triggering backlash from international markets.
The nationalization wave of the 1930s was a symptom of global economic and financial disintegration. In the short term, it prevented a wave of bankruptcies, but it also fragmented national markets and reduced the volume of international trade and investment. Over time, the expansion of state ownership gave governments more policy autonomy and enabled them to play a role in a new international economic system after World War II.
Assistant professor of modern history at Cornell University and author of "The Age of Confiscation: Making and Taking Property in the Creation of the Modern World."
Original source: Aleqtisadiah
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