The launch of the first executive phase of the army's deployment in the experimental areas, coinciding with President Joseph Aoun's visit to the United States and hours before his meeting with his American counterpart Donald Trump, carries a multi-targeted political message for domestic and foreign audiences, most notably the start of activating the implementation of the Lebanese-Israeli 'Framework Agreement' under American auspices to prevent it from remaining dead letter, and providing protection for it by preventing Israel from joining the military confrontation between Washington and Tehran. This tops the concern of Lebanon's friends through their communication with the American administration to prevent its joining from negatively affecting efforts to neutralize it by Hezbollah entering the confrontation line.

Separating the Lebanese track from the Iranian track

In this context, a ministerial source following the expected results of the Aoun-Trump meeting said, 'The mere beginning of the army's deployment in the experimental areas is not a test of imposing its control over them by preventing any armed presence of illegal forces, meaning Hezbollah alone, but rather to confirm that Washington is pressing for Israel's gradual withdrawal from the south on the path to separating the (Framework Agreement) from the Iranian-American (Memorandum of Understanding), which is collapsing under the pressure of continued confrontation between the two signatory parties, with Trump declaring its demise and agreeing with Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei on this by announcing the suspension of its implementation.'

A ministerial source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington's insistence on separating the 'Framework Agreement' from the 'Memorandum of Understanding' has begun to take effect, and said, 'What is required is to neutralize it to protect it by preventing Israel from joining Washington in its confrontation with Tehran, to cut off the pretext for Hezbollah if it decides again to support Iran, although there are no field effects so far from the threat of its Secretary-General Naim Qassem not to return to the situation before last March 2, in reference to his violation of the ceasefire by launching rockets in response to continued Israeli attacks, though it turned out that the motive is first and foremost revenge against Israel for assassinating former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei – so will he repeat it?'

Units of the Lebanese army deploy at the entrance of the town of Zawtar al-Gharbiya in southern Lebanon following the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area under an American-sponsored plan (Reuters)

An American boost to Lebanon

He added, 'The launch of the first phase of the army's deployment is nothing but an American advance payment to Lebanon to confirm Washington's separation of its track from the Iranian one, to be followed by an exceptional political-security-economic package that Trump will present to Aoun at the end of their meeting, which would consolidate the ceasefire and compel Israel to stop its hostile acts and continued bulldozing of towns within the Yellow Line and its systematic destruction of the remaining houses there.'

The source expected Washington to pressure Israel to expand the army's deployment so it is not limited to the town of Zawtar al-Gharbiya, and he attaches importance to the meeting scheduled for Thursday via Zoom of the military coordination group dedicated to Lebanon, as it includes officers from the three signatory countries of the 'Framework Agreement' who can, if necessary, call on the UNIFIL international emergency forces to verify the deployment and the absence of armed groups affiliated with Hezbollah.

He emphasized, 'Israel is not a party to the committee verifying the army's deployment, and it is not allowed to enter the experimental areas under the pretext of ensuring the army's authority there and the absence of gunmen. The task of verification is left to the American monitoring team in coordination with the army command, and the committee is supervised by American General Joseph Clerfeld, with whom the Israeli side communicates if it has information about the entry of gunmen into these areas, especially since mere verification will open the door to moving to deploy the army in a new experimental area.'

Betting on the Aoun-Trump meeting

The source added that Aoun, who communicated with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri before heading to Washington, attaches importance to his meeting with Trump, hoping it will give the green light to expand the army's deployment to include areas still under Israeli occupation, as a prelude to reaching a timetable for Israel's withdrawal to internationally recognized borders, in exchange for Lebanon's adherence to the state's monopoly on arms as a domestic demand before an external one, being more than necessary for the state to impose its authority over all its territory. This inevitably means that the 'Framework Agreement' has been amended in its application in a way that addresses the reservations of Berri and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Joumblatt on the agreement.

He stressed the importance of the American leverage for Lebanon to determine its future position if a redrawing of the political and geographical map of the region is decided without compromising its internationally recognized borders. He said, 'We hope that the American understanding of Lebanon will expand to include its economic crises and the reconstruction of destroyed towns as a compulsory passage to move the country to recovery.' He added, 'Aoun's return to Beirut with doses of support at all levels means neutralizing Hezbollah's pretext for retaining its weapons.' He pointed out that 'merely providing this support inevitably invalidates any field effectiveness of the party's weapons, forcing it to reconsider its position and reassess its calculations on the basis that Lebanon is entering, with international-Arab leverage, a new phase different from the one before the Aoun-Trump summit, unless its leadership insists on judging intentions by refusing to engage in the (Framework Agreement) while the (Memorandum of Understanding) collapses, even if it is revived by Tehran succumbing to Washington's terms, as long as the latter remains committed to separating the Lebanese track from the Iranian one.'

Units of the Lebanese army at the entrance of the town of Zawtar al-Gharbiya in southern Lebanon after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area under an American-sponsored plan (Reuters)

Differentiation between Berri and Hezbollah

He emphasized, 'Aoun's return to Beirut with a decisive decision to consolidate the ceasefire and the simultaneous army deployment with Israel's gradual withdrawal from the south inevitably means that differentiation is happening between the party and Berri, who refuses to prejudge intentions like his ally, preferring to wait to be able to act accordingly because what matters to him is achieving positive results, and the lesson remains in implementation, as he says. He agrees with Aoun on a set of national constants and refuses to be dragged into burning stages and making premature stances. This places the American administration before its commitment that President Trump is ready to provide Aoun with an exceptional boost of support to move the country to a new phase.'