The calculations of the French presidency regarding the course of the war in Ukraine hinge on two fundamental factors: the first concerns field developments and the growing arsenal now possessed by Ukrainian forces, particularly in the field of aerial and naval drones, and their ability to strike vital and symbolic targets far from the front lines. The second is what Paris and some European capitals perceive as a shift in the positions of US President Donald Trump, evident at the G7 summit in Evian and then at the recent NATO summit in Ankara.

This shift in the European stance comes after more than three years of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has entered a new phase of field and diplomatic escalation.

French and Ukrainian presidents before the start of the 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting in Paris on Monday (Reuters)

Against the backdrop of these two significant shifts, the expanded summit was held on Monday in Paris, bringing together 25 heads of state and government, most of them European, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron within the framework of the 'Coalition of the Willing,' i.e., countries interested in contributing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine after military operations cease or after a peace agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow.

'Coalition of Warmongers'

The Russian response was not long in coming; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday described the coalition as a 'coalition of warmongers, driven by deep illusions about the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on our country. This is a coalition of the deceived and those who fuel the war,' noting that Russia would closely monitor the work of the aforementioned summit.

Moscow had warned the Europeans, led by the French president and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, against deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, considering them hostile NATO forces. But what is new, according to Western capitals, is that the military difficulties facing Moscow are driving it to harden the terms of a political solution and reject the parameters of the previous US peace plan, which had made Ukraine's abandonment of the entire Donbas region, including territories not under Russian control, a condition for peace. Macron tweeted on platform X on Monday afternoon, affirming that the 'Coalition of the Willing' would work to 'accelerate support for Ukraine, strengthen its defense, increase pressure on Russia, and build security guarantees for tomorrow,' adding that 'the unity of (the Europeans) is the source of their strength, determination, and credibility.'

It was clear that Macron took advantage of the national holiday to organize the meeting. As a gesture toward the 'Coalition of the Willing,' he invited a number of its leaders to be his guests on the honor stand to attend the traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées, which was led by 500 soldiers from the coalition's member states. The parade enjoys wide public interest and was the only one of its kind in a major democracy before President Donald Trump replicated it and ordered a similar parade in Washington on the occasion of American Independence Day.

French president and British prime minister during the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit to support Ukraine in Paris on Monday (AFP)

'Strategic Awakening'

Sources in the French presidency pre-empted the meeting by outlining the goals the leaders aim to achieve, seeing it as an indicator of the 'strategic awakening' that Europeans want in the face of Russia and vis-à-vis the United States. However, they also stressed that the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit would focus on pushing for a ceasefire and resumption of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, in parallel with work to strengthen Ukrainian defense capabilities. The 'coalition' focuses on enabling Kyiv to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

According to the Élysée, this must be achieved through three mechanisms: first, providing more interceptor missiles for the Patriot system, which have become scarce due to the US-Israeli-Iranian war; second, accelerating the deployment of the Franco-Italian air defense system 'SAMP/T,' which is comparable to the American Patriot; and third, working at the European level to develop alternatives to interceptor missiles through joint cooperation between Europeans and Ukrainians. After Trump told the Ukrainian president that he would enable Kyiv to produce Patriots locally, the Europeans will in turn consider such a mechanism, noting that obtaining a license to produce Patriot missiles, for example, is not free and the Europeans will have to bear the cost.

German chancellor and Ukrainian president on the sidelines of the 'Paris Summit' on Monday (AFP)

Coalition to Counter Ballistic Missiles

On Monday afternoon, the Élysée Palace distributed the 'Joint Declaration on the Establishment of the Integrated Coalition to Counter Ballistic Missiles' issued by the leaders of 11 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and Britain), stating that the signatory countries, 'aware of the growing threat posed by ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of defense capabilities in ensuring the security of the European continent, announce today the launch of the process of creating a purely defensive coalition to counter ballistic missiles. They also express support for its main project aimed at tirelessly developing a ballistic missile defense capability.' The countries concerned believe that 'protecting Europe requires a comprehensive solution consisting of establishing an integrated missile defense system, with the aim of deterring and countering future missile threats, through collective effort, technological openness, and trust-based industrial cooperation.'

A member of the French Republican Guard standing in front of the flags of the countries that participated in the 'Summit of the Willing' in Paris on Monday (AFP)

The path to that goes through 'unifying our defense industrial base, our research efforts, and our operational expertise.' The declaration stipulated a set of measures and mechanisms to achieve the desired goal, or something like a 'roadmap.' According to the 11 leaders, what they are doing 'does not target any people, but aims to defend our peoples.' The signatories left the door open 'for other countries that share its principles and objectives.' Macron tweeted on platform X saying, 'In the face of the ballistic threat, we have made a clear choice: to protect Ukraine, strengthen our collective security, and build a defensive Europe. By launching the ballistic coalition, we are strengthening the capabilities that Europe needs.'