It appears that the decision of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, to move from silence to open support for the anti-corruption campaign led by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi represents a turning point in Iraqi political balances, as it opens the door to a direct confrontation with the forces of the 'Coordination Framework', after the competition between the two sides over the past years had been conducted through political and electoral tools rather than open confrontation.

The first notable reaction came from the leader of the 'State of Law' coalition and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who defended the 'Coordination Framework' as a political project that has proven its success, in a move widely interpreted as an attempt to contain the growing pressures facing the ruling Shiite alliance.

These developments come at a time when signs of divergence have begun within the forces of the 'Coordination Framework', which was formed after the 2021 elections as an alternative to the traditional Shiite alliances that have succeeded each other since the 2005 elections, starting with the 'United Iraqi Alliance', which was said to have enjoyed the support of the religious authority at that time, passing through the 'National Alliance', and arriving at the current formula that emerged after the Sadrist movement left the governing equation.

Archival photo of the leader of the 'Sadrist movement', Muqtada al-Sadr (Reuters)

Sadr's Silence

After the 2021 elections, Sadr had attempted to form a 'national majority' government that included the 'Kurdistan Democratic Party' led by Masoud Barzani, and a Sunni alliance led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, but the project faltered due to what was known as the 'blocking third', which prevented the election of the president according to the constitutionally required majority, leading to the continuation of a state of political deadlock.

In the summer of 2022, Sadr decided to withdraw his deputies from parliament, announcing his withdrawal from the political process. Addressing members of his parliamentary bloc at the time, he said: 'I have decided to withdraw from the political process so as not to participate with the corrupt in any way.' He added that he would not participate in any elections in the 'presence of the corrupt,' calling on his supporters to maintain their political and popular organization in preparation for any future stage if circumstances changed.

Since then, Sadr has boycotted subsequent elections, including the most recent ones, despite repeated calls for him to return to the political process, including from his opponents within the 'Coordination Framework'.

'Anti-Corruption' Changes the Equation

The most prominent development came with the anti-corruption campaign launched by the government of Ali al-Zaidi, which culminated in the arrest of 21 political and parliamentary figures in what was known as Operation 'Dawn Raid'.

The campaign gained momentum after Judge Diaa Jaafar, who is overseeing the investigation, announced that part of the looted funds was used to finance election campaigns, a statement that raised widespread questions about the integrity of the last electoral process and the extent of the influence of political money on its results.

Observers believe that these developments have provided Sadr with a political ground that aligns with his positions declared since his withdrawal from parliament, based on refusing to participate in a system he considers tainted by corruption.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi (Government Media)

A Compromise Option or a Reshaping?

The selection of Ali al-Zaidi for prime minister came after the forces of the 'Coordination Framework' failed to agree on a candidate from within their ranks. After ruling out granting a second term to former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and the faltering chances of nominating Nouri al-Maliki amid internal and external objections, the political forces moved to choose a figure from outside the traditional political class.

Al-Zaidi, a businessman in his forties, is seen as an acceptable option for Washington, in contrast to an Iranian position characterized by caution and a lack of the usual enthusiasm, amid the decline of Iranian influence in Iraq compared to previous years.

Al-Zaidi's positions have also drawn attention since the early days of his tenure, whether by not participating in the funeral ceremony of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which was attended by a number of 'Coordination Framework' leaders and the official Iraqi delegation headed by President Nazar Amidi, or by announcing his intention to strengthen relations with the United States, with expectations of a visit to Washington within weeks.

Domestically, al-Zaidi announced his intention to proceed with disarming armed factions, giving those factions a deadline ending in September, a file that successive Iraqi governments have failed to resolve due to its political and security complexities.

Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr wave the Iraqi flag during a demonstration in support of the Iraqi government's anti-corruption measures in Najaf (AP)

Sadr Breaks His Silence

The decisive point came when Sadr announced his full adoption of the anti-corruption campaign, describing al-Zaidi as a 'soldier of reform,' in a step that went beyond political support to granting the government broad popular cover.

This was followed by demonstrations in support of the campaign, and Sadrist leaders began engaging in its support after months of adhering to silence while awaiting Sadr's directives.

Observers believe that this development represents the first broad political and popular alignment against the forces dominating power since 2003, especially since the anti-corruption campaign has targeted figures affiliated with influential forces within the 'Coordination Framework'.

Adding to the sensitivity of the scene is that the priorities of al-Zaidi's government, foremost among them fighting corruption and limiting arms to the state, intersect with the priorities of US President Donald Trump's administration towards Iraq, which, according to analysts, creates an intersection of interests between Washington and the Sadrist movement, despite the fundamental differences between them on other files.

Pressures on the 'Coordination' (Framework)

This intersection does not mean there is a direct political alliance between Sadr and the US administration, but it gives the government support from two sides that were traditionally seen as standing at opposite ends of the Iraqi scene, which multiplies the pressures on the 'Coordination Framework'.

In the face of these developments, Nouri al-Maliki quickly defended the 'Coordination Framework', asserting in a post on platform 'X' that the alliance 'formed a incubator for the national political process,' and that its success was embodied in the formation of three successive governments.

He added that 'there is no reason to abandon a project that has proven its success,' affirming that '(the Framework) will remain a framework as it was founded, preserving its constants, identity, and founders,' considering that any development should be limited to mechanisms of work and performance, not to touch the essence of the project.