India is expected to face a food crisis as panic spreads among farmers due to fertilizer shortages amid the Iran war. The cascading effects of fuel and fertilizer shortages are evident among farmers in India and Sri Lanka, despite government assurances of sufficient stocks for all.

Gurvinder Singh never imagined that the fallout from the war in Iran would reach his peaceful corner of Punjab. But now, as he looks at his small plot of land, where he alternately cultivates wheat and rice in the state known as India's breadbasket, the 52-year-old farmer can think of nothing else. His anxiety over a conflict thousands of miles away has become suffocating as he fears for this season's rice crop.

"We are suffering from reduced profits," Singh told The Guardian. "If we don't get fertilizers, production will be lower, and that will affect my entire family and the whole region because we depend entirely on agriculture. We pray this war stops because it will not spare us either."

Iran's decision to impose a blockade on one of the world's most important shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz, in response to US and Israeli strikes more than a month ago, has plunged the world into a spiral of concern over oil and gas supplies.

But analysts and international bodies warn that this impact will soon go beyond soaring oil prices and could be devastating for global food security. There are growing fears of food shortages and declining stocks, especially in developing countries, as the agricultural sector is disrupted. The World Food Program estimates that an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity if the conflict does not end by next June.

India is the world's second-largest consumer of fertilizers

Experts say South Asian countries like India and Sri Lanka are vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilizers, gas, and fuel for agriculture.

India is the world's second-largest consumer of fertilizers after China, using more than 60 million tons annually. Most of its imports—both finished products and raw materials—come from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz.

In countries like India, the effects of gas and fertilizer shortages could last for months, affecting the quality and quantity of crops farmers can grow, potentially leading to shortages of staples like rice.

Farmers' ability to irrigate, harvest, process, store, and transport will be severely affected by fuel and diesel shortages and rising electricity prices, increasing fears of production shortfalls. India spent more than 1.8 trillion rupees ($22 billion) on fertilizer subsidies in 2023-2024, highlighting their importance to farmers and the agricultural sector's sensitivity to global price shocks.

Agricultural specialist Devinder Sharma said early indicators point to tightening supplies and rising costs due to the war, which are already being passed on to farmers. "Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on chemical fertilizers, and any disruption quickly raises concerns," he added.

Iran war pressures supply chains

The conflict has begun to strain supply chains, and farmers say they are particularly worried about urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer essential for Indian agriculture, with annual consumption between 35 and 40 million tons. Although a significant portion is produced domestically, production depends on imported natural gas, which is already in short supply in the country, with gas supplies to these plants cut by 30 percent.

In major grain-producing states like Punjab and Haryana, farmers say the immediate impact has not yet been felt, but panic is setting in. Preparations for the autumn season usually begin in May each year, before planting crops like rice and cotton in June and July, leaving a narrow window before the fertilizer shortage affects production.

India's autumn season typically produces around 100 million tons of rice. Farmers usually buy fertilizers within the next 15 to 20 days, but many have started stockpiling them early. Fertilizer dealer Prakash Limbuya Swamy in Karnataka told the newspaper, "I have not seen such panic in 35 years of work."

Officials insist that fertilizer plants are operating normally and that reserve stocks are higher than last year, despite earlier reports of gas shortages at some plants.

Aparna A. Sharma, an official in the Ministry of Fertilizers, said, "We currently have stocks higher than last year, indicating a healthy supply situation," adding that supply sources are being diversified away from traditional suppliers.

Sri Lanka more vulnerable

But despite these reassurances, anxiety persists among farmers. Many small-scale farmers in India are operating at heavy losses and carrying heavy debts despite government support, in a system experts describe as unfair and exploitative.

Tejveer Singh from Punjab said, "Due to panic, farmers around me have started hoarding fertilizers despite their limited shelf life. Any shortage will affect our productivity. We are already under pressure from rising costs, and this will be a big blow."

In Sri Lanka, fears of nutrient shortages for crops are more urgent. Less than five years ago, farmers faced a similar crisis when the country could not import fertilizers, leading to heavy losses and crop shortages.

According to a UN report, Sri Lanka is among the most vulnerable countries after Sudan if the conflict continues and disrupts fertilizer supplies.

Farmer B. Amila said he had received warnings of a significant price hike, so he decided not to plant rice in the upcoming season for fear of falling deeper into debt.

"This is the most volatile situation I have seen in 30 years of farming," he added. "The future will not be easy, and I fear what people will do when they can't find rice."

The Sri Lankan government said it has taken steps to control prices and distribute fertilizers fairly, especially in areas where the farming season has begun.

National Agriculture Federation Chairman Anuradha Thennakoon warned that the looming fertilizer crisis could be worse than the fuel crisis. "The government says there is enough fertilizer, but that is not true. There are no stocks, and if the farming season is affected, there will be a serious threat to food security," he said.

In Polonnaruwa, Sri Lanka, farmer Ranjith Hulugalle said fertilizer stocks in his area are running out and prices have nearly doubled. He described the situation as a "minefield" for farmers and consumers, adding, "We are about to face a major crisis within a month, and after that the country will face a food crisis."