With the release of details of the Mossad (Israeli foreign intelligence) plan to topple the Iranian regime, which failed miserably, voices are rising calling for the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Barnea, the former Mossad chief and architect of the plan.

Israeli media reported Wednesday that security officials said the plan was naive and prepared in an amateur rather than professional manner, and that the majority of US officials rejected it on the grounds that it was doomed to fail.

Security and political sources in Washington and Tel Aviv had revealed details of the plan in reports published by the New York Times last Sunday and Haaretz on Sunday and Monday.

The plan was drawn up before the latest US-Israeli war on Iran and included several elements, foremost among them the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, exploiting the expected chaos after his death to push Iranians to protest, recruiting armed Kurdish groups to invade Tehran with participation from members of other minorities, enlisting Azerbaijan to launch an attack from the north, as well as recruiting former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later installing him as the new president after toppling the regime.

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Early US rejection

Netanyahu presented the plan to President Donald Trump and his aides during his visit to the White House on February 11, 2025. Barnea joined the meeting via video link from Mossad headquarters in Glilot.

According to Haaretz, the initial outcome of the meeting was deceptive, as Trump became convinced that the time had come to topple the regime. But the picture changed completely when he met with his advisers the next day. Vice President J.D. Vance expressed skepticism about the Israeli plan, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared more emphatic, describing it as 'nonsense.' CIA Director John Ratcliffe also mocked it, calling it a 'farce.'

The senior intelligence officials present concluded that the expectation that a Kurdish invasion would lead to the regime's fall was 'detached from reality.' Trump, seemingly convinced by his advisers' reasoning, ended the discussion by saying that regime change would be 'their problem.'

Both newspapers published data indicating that former President Ahmadinejad agreed to work with Israel in preparation for his installation as president, but his office issued a strongly worded statement denying this.

Ahmadinejad's office said that what the newspaper published was 'completely false,' describing it as containing 'Hollywood claims' and a 'ridiculous scenario,' in an attempt to 'create confusion and wage psychological warfare' against Iranians.

In a statement published by Ahmadinejad's website 'Dolate Bahar,' the former president continues his 'ongoing affairs' and works in the service of citizens, categorically denying that he is under house arrest or has any ties to Israel.

Mossad in the crosshairs of criticism

Haaretz published a series of reactions that considered Netanyahu and Barnea's plan a failure. A senior security official said: 'There is a failure here for Mossad, stemming from their belief that they could topple a regime with such limited capability.'

Other sources expressed similar views, noting that this ambitious plan, which was supposed to be the fruit of years of work, was drawn up in months.

Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo said: 'When I headed a special operations unit, I always oversaw an effective strategic operation. We worked for two years to achieve a result.'

For his part, Ram Ben Barak, former deputy Mossad chief and member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, said: 'It is impossible to implement a regime change plan in just a few months. I estimated that this plan would take at least a decade. Finding alternative leadership, appointing a leader, recruiting individuals, and bringing in weapons—all are arduous efforts and endless failures.'

Another Mossad source added: 'This was a huge event that was supposed to last 15 years. It should have been passed from one chief to another, but it cannot be accomplished so easily. Mossad is a huge ship, and moving it takes time.'

A fourth source, who previously served as a department head in Mossad, said: 'Such an operation requires enormous effort,' adding: 'You have to build a massive system, and even after building it, you cannot be certain that success is guaranteed.'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Mossad Director David Barnea in Jerusalem on April 4, 2023 (DPA)

The source also pointed to another aspect: arrogance, and clinging to the goal no matter the cost, to the point of blindness. Just as Netanyahu did not consult his predecessors and was not influenced by warnings from the intelligence directorate, the same was true for senior Mossad leaders.

A security source said: 'In the midst of preparations, Mossad contacted me and asked me to meet with the head of the influence department. He was the one leading the plan. I said I would be happy to attend. I came and greeted him, but it was clear that he did not need help and already knew what to do. I thanked him profusely and left.'

A security source wondered: 'Where were all those who should have stood up and said this is all nonsense? The experts should have said: Enough, stop, you are offering baseless ideas. All these people, and no one says the king is naked?'

In ongoing discussions, some believe the entire plan was a grave strategic mistake. A security source said: 'You followed an illusion and created a victory narrative for the Iranians.' He added that Mossad bears significant responsibility for this failure because it implied a high probability of success, and Netanyahu also bears part of the responsibility, as he sought to implement the plan from the beginning and pursued it even after being told it was unfeasible.

Ahmadinejad speaking to his ally Saeed Jalili, adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran (Archive - ILNA)

Disagreement over outcomes

In contrast, other voices urge caution, arguing that the plan did not succeed, but the results of the entire campaign may not become clear for years. Proponents of this view say that Israel ended the Second Lebanon War with a sense of bitterness, but then enjoyed 17 years of calm.

Barnea himself still believes that the Iranian regime is doomed to collapse, expecting this to happen within one to three years. However, he also acknowledges that if the US and Iran reach an agreement leading to the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions, there is a high probability that the regime will survive.

In fact, under such a scenario, the regime would have withstood widespread protests, resisted an attack by the world's largest power, and not succumbed to a prolonged pressure campaign over the Strait of Hormuz. Money would flow in, and defense production could see a major boom. Nevertheless, the gamble Netanyahu took could cost Israel dearly.

Ofer Shelah, former head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, wrote in an article published by Haaretz on Wednesday that 'the damage to Israel's security and international standing is great, no less than the damage of the October 7 massacre,' attributing it to inherent flaws in Israeli culture and way of thinking.

A photo published by the official IRNA news agency showing Ahmadinejad offering condolences to Khamenei's sons Mostafa and Masoud, with Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, seen giving a statement to official TV in Tehran on Monday