Summary: According to sources, this round of talks is led by Turkey and several European Union ambassadors, in addition to representatives from the United Nations. A Somali local radio reported that the mediation delegation met in the capital Mogadishu with government officials, alongside representatives of the opposition Future Council coalition, which includes a number of opposition political parties, as well as influential national figures.

Parallel Somali sources reported that a new round of talks has launched in Somalia on the initiative of international mediators, against the backdrop of the political crisis the country is experiencing between the central government and the opposition alliance, over a number of issues, foremost among them the recent constitutional amendments and direct elections, in addition to the issue of extending the term of outgoing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud until 2027.

According to the sources, this round of talks is led by Turkey and several European Union ambassadors, in addition to representatives from the United Nations. A Somali local radio reported that the mediation delegation met in the capital Mogadishu with government officials, alongside representatives of the opposition Future Council coalition, which includes a number of opposition political parties, as well as influential national figures.

A spokesperson who participated in the talks said the agenda fundamentally included a review of the recent constitutional amendments, in line with demands raised by the Somali political street in recent months, in addition to studying the opposition's demands related to launching a transitional phase managed by consensus between the federal government and opposition forces. It also included, according to the source who preferred not to be named, studying the electoral system and the distribution of powers between the central government and the federal states.

This round of talks between political factions within Somalia comes at a time when the country is experiencing wide-ranging political and security challenges, especially the war declared by Mogadishu against the Al-Shabaab movement, along with challenges related to Somali territorial unity, particularly in light of Israel's recognition of the independence of the Somaliland region and its pursuit to establish military bases near the port of Berbera, as well as Ethiopia's pursuit of a maritime outlet on the Somali coast, especially after Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the former government in Hargeisa, which included guaranteeing Ethiopia's recognition of the region's independence in exchange for obtaining sovereign outlets on the northern coasts of Somalia.

Observers believe that the new initiative, led primarily by Turkey, represents the first indication of Ankara's expanding influence in the Horn of Africa region, especially as it follows the signing of several agreements with Mogadishu, including investment, security, and military agreements. Ankara subsequently deployed its military units on the Somali coast.

Advanced Initiative

For his part, Somali affairs specialist Mohamed Aidi said that the initiative led by Ankara with the participation of Western ambassadors and representatives from the United Nations fundamentally aims to bring Somali political factions closer regarding four main files: first, resolving the dispute over the recent constitutional amendments and the need to reach a common vision on the essence of the required amendments; second, reaching a consensus on the electoral system; third, drawing a framework for relations between the central government and the federal governments in Somali regions; and fourth, forming a national consensus government to manage the transitional phase that ensures the optimal implementation of the agreed upon constitutional amendments.

Aidi believes that the contentious point that disrupted communication between the government and the opposition alliance, which is the refusal to extend the term of the outgoing president, can be overcome if agreement is reached on the four points. It is expected that the opposition coalition would agree to Hassan Sheikh Mohamud continuing as president if a transitional phase is approved in which the opposition shares the government.

Aidi views Turkey's leadership of the talks as an important guarantor of negotiation success, especially since it has major interests in Somalia and does not take sides. Its strategic interests on the Somali coast, including its investments in oil exploration, as well as vital interests related to navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb, require it to work on finding fair solutions for all parties in the Somali political crisis.

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The Somali analyst adds that what increases Ankara's eagerness to find solutions to the Somali political crisis, alongside achieving commercial and investment interests, is the strengthening of foreign ambitions on the coast and the geopolitical challenges they pose to the region in general and to Turkish interests, especially Israeli efforts to be present at the entrances to the Red Sea, as well as the Ethiopian project related to gaining a foothold on the Somali coast.

Ankara, according to Aidi, views Israeli incursion into the region as a threat to its vital interests, both commercially and strategically, and threatens its investments, especially in the oil sector on the Somali coast.

Despite the failure of previous rounds of indirect negotiations between the two sides, the Somali political analyst sees hope in the new round because the leader of the talks has advanced relations with all conflicting parties. He pointed out that previous rounds led by Europeans and the United Nations did not gain acceptance from one of the parties to the crisis, while Turkey has significant credit in the memory of Somalis, in addition to its development and investment contributions within the country, as well as its principled stance on Somali territorial unity and its success in formulating the Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia. Therefore, this round has a greater chance of success than its predecessors, according to Aidi.

Bloody Memories

For his part, Ethiopian political analyst Behun Gidawn believes that the multiplicity of initiatives on the Somali political issue prolongs the crisis and does not provide effective solutions. He pointed out that countries in the region surrounding Somalia have concerns about Turkish expansion in Somalia, especially in its military and political aspects. He affirmed that the growing Turkish presence in the region evokes old memories dating back to the early 19th century, when the Ottomans intervened on one side and waged bloody wars against several Ethiopian territories.

He added that the Ethiopian memory retains images of negative Turkish intervention in the region's history, stressing that there are declared positions from the African Union taken in the past decade that affirm the necessity of resolving political crises in the continent through African mediations. He emphasized that cross-continental initiatives come within the framework of enhancing influence and achieving private interests, not necessarily to resolve the region's crises.

Gidawn interprets Turkey's growing interest in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region as an attempt to extend its influence in the face of Israel's potential presence, especially after Israel recognized Somaliland's independence, which increases the chances of the region as a whole entering into conflicts between regional and international powers.