JERUSALEM / Zain Khalil / AA

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak warned that current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may resort to a military escalation against Lebanon leading to a broader confrontation with Iran, if he becomes convinced he is heading toward losing the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Barak said in an interview with Israel's private Channel 12 on Friday evening that Netanyahu might order an attack on the southern suburb of Beirut or targets in southern Lebanon to draw a response from Hezbollah, leading to a regional escalation that develops into war with Iran, not just with the party.

He added that there are several scenarios Netanyahu might resort to if he becomes convinced he will lose the upcoming Knesset (parliament) elections scheduled for October.

He further stated: "It is not unlikely that if Netanyahu sees, a few days before the election, that he will not win, he will order fire on a facility in Nabatieh, then Hezbollah will respond by launching drones toward Israel, and then Israel will attack the southern suburb, leading to a war with Iran, not just Hezbollah."

The former prime minister (1999–2001) also warned of the possibility that Netanyahu might take steps aimed at disrupting the electoral process, saying, "Riots could break out, and thugs could break into places where votes are counted."

He continued: "Netanyahu will try to take very dangerous steps to disrupt the elections if he realizes he is a loser. He will not hesitate to do so, and at the end of election day, we may see thugs trying to break into ballot counting centers."

Barak explained that his aim in issuing these warnings is "to prevent such scenarios from occurring," saying, "I am warning in advance because one way to deter Netanyahu from taking such steps is for everyone to be aware of the possibility of them happening."

He added: "People who deeply understand politics realize that Netanyahu will try to take very dangerous steps to disrupt the elections if he becomes convinced he is about to lose them."

Barak's warnings come after similar warnings issued by the leader of the opposition Yisrael Beiteinu party, Avigdor Lieberman, on May 14, 2026, about the possibility of Netanyahu taking a military step "for electoral purposes."

It is the same warning made by military analyst Amos Harel of the Haaretz newspaper on April 24, who said then that Netanyahu's government is seeking to "launch a new attack on Gaza" for electoral considerations, while some officials in it await Hamas committing a "grave mistake" by firing rockets at Israel.

This also comes amid a decline for Netanyahu and his Likud party in opinion polls ahead of the next elections.

A poll published by Channel 13 on Friday showed that 60 percent of Israelis rated Netanyahu's credibility as "weak," compared to only 38 percent who rated it as "good," while opposition Yesh Atid party leader Gadi Eisenkot topped the list of most credible politicians with 54 percent.

Another poll by the same channel on Wednesday showed the Yesh Atid party leading for the first time in voting intentions for the Knesset, winning 23 seats compared to 22 for Netanyahu's Likud party.

According to the poll, the camp opposing Netanyahu from Jewish parties wins 58 seats, compared to 51 for his camp, while Arab parties win 11 seats out of 120.

Thus, the total seats for opposition parties rise to 69, compared to only 51 seats for the current governing coalition parties.

Any government in Israel needs the support of at least 61 Knesset members, while most opposition Jewish leaders say they do not intend to rely on the support of Arab lawmakers to form a government, at a time when Arab lists are presenting their demands in exchange for supporting any governing coalition.

Regarding the suitability of candidates for prime minister, 46 percent of respondents said Eisenkot was most suitable for the position, compared to 36 percent for Netanyahu, while 18 percent said they did not know.

Channel 13 recently quoted unnamed sources as saying that Netanyahu told senior Likud officials that the party's current list "will not bring governance," referring to his efforts to make changes within the party in preparation for the upcoming elections.