Escalation or New Negotiations?!

July 9, 2026 - 01:05 | Last update July 9, 2026 - 01:05

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The relationship between Washington and Tehran has entered a new phase of complexity and escalation, with President Donald Trump announcing the end of the memorandum of understanding. Undoubtedly, this step opens the door to a phase characterized by heightened tension and political and security uncertainty in the region, but it may not necessarily mean a return to fighting, although it reflects a lack of trust and the collapse of the truce.

It is expected that the coming period will witness a new escalation, as mediators continue their efforts through exchanging messages with both sides of the crisis to prevent a slide into all-out war, a scenario that neither side seems willing to bear.

Hence, the coming hours will witness an acceleration of efforts and the return of negotiation channels, whether directly or through regional and international mediators, as past experiences have shown that the relationship between Washington and Tehran often oscillates between escalation and negotiation according to the balance of power and changing interests.

Certainly, the announcement of the end of the memorandum of understanding does not represent the end of the crisis, but may lead to the beginning of a new phase of redrawing the rules of political and military engagement between Iran and the United States.

The features of this phase are expected to be determined by the ability of the two sides to balance escalation and deterrence on one hand, and maintain a window for dialogue that prevents the region from sliding into a broad confrontation that could go beyond the borders of the two countries and extend to the entire region.