Al Jazeera Capital expected Saudi Aramco's net profit (after minority interests) for the second quarter of 2026 to rise by 39.7% year-on-year, but decline by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter to SAR 119.6 billion, a decrease of 3.6% from the adjusted net profit in Q1 2026.

Al Jazeera Capital believes the decline in adjusted net profit from the previous quarter is mostly due to lower revenues resulting from a decrease in the volume of exploration segment products, despite a significant rise in oil prices. Revenue is expected to rise by 12.6% year-on-year but decline by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter to SAR 458.5 billion.

Al Jazeera Capital's report added that exploration segment revenues are expected to drag total revenues down by 5.7% quarter-on-quarter due to a significant drop in sales volumes (crude oil: about 2.4 million barrels per day quarter-on-quarter; hydrocarbons: about 2.6 million barrels per day quarter-on-quarter) affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite a 21.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in Brent crude prices.

According to Al Jazeera Capital, refining revenues are likely to stabilize quarter-on-quarter (up 0.7%) due to a significant improvement in refining margins, offset by lower sales volumes. The operating profit margin is expected to improve in Q2 2026 to 48.3% from the adjusted operating profit margin of 48.2% in Q1 2026, as some operating costs are expected to decline compared to the previous quarter.

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