International Energy Agency Raises Oil Demand Forecasts as Consumption Recovers

Bloomberg

Friday, July 10, 2026 13:04 | 1 minute read

The International Energy Agency raised its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2026 and 2027, noting that global consumption is beginning to recover, while global supply recorded its largest monthly increase in months, driven by a rise in Gulf supplies.

In its report released today, the agency raised its estimate for global oil demand this year to 103.5 million barrels per day, compared to 103.3 million barrels per day in its forecast last month. It also raised its 2027 forecast to 105.5 million barrels per day from 105.3 million barrels per day previously, confirming that global demand is regaining momentum.

Gulf oil exports rise sharply

In its monthly report, the agency noted that global oil supply rose by about 4.1 million barrels per day in June on a monthly basis, supported by higher production and exports, especially from Gulf countries. The UAE also reached a new record production level in June.

It added that total Gulf oil exports jumped by 6.5 million barrels per day in June compared to May, while UAE production hit a record 4.1 million barrels per day, the highest ever.

On the other hand, the agency noted that Ukrainian strikes have affected more than half of Russia's refining capacity, a development that reflects ongoing pressures on the Russian energy sector despite the increase in global supplies.

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