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The International Energy Agency said on Friday it had lowered its forecasts for Russian oil production due to Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure there.

Ukraine has increased the pace of its drone attacks on energy facilities, including oil refineries, in recent months in an effort to hinder Moscow's war efforts.

Novak: Russia bans diesel exports to boost domestic supplies

The Paris-based agency said in its monthly forecast: 'Continued attacks on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure support expectations of weaker output, and accordingly we have cut our forecasts for Russian supplies by 85,000 barrels per day for this year and 150,000 bpd for next, averaging 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period.'

The agency expects oil output from Russia, the world's third-largest producer, to reach 8.9 million bpd this year and 8.8 million bpd in 2027, down from 9.2 million bpd in 2025.

The agency said Russia's crude output in June rose by 120,000 bpd to 8.86 million bpd compared with May, which is 900,000 bpd below the quota set by the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies.

Attacks on oil refineries have also led to an increase in Russian crude oil exports in recent months. Industry sources say shipments from western Russian ports reached an unprecedented level in June and are expected to maintain that level in July.

Source data showed exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, amounted to about 3 million bpd in June.

The agency's estimates put total Russian crude exports in June at 5.8 million bpd, up 620,000 bpd from May. In contrast, oil product exports fell by 230,000 bpd from May to 1.91 million bpd last month.

Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports this week, along with restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel exports, to address domestic fuel shortages.

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