As clashes between the United States and Iran renew in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran war is heading toward a stage of 'open attrition,' with each side betting on the other's endurance until it yields, while risks to global navigation and energy markets increase as chances of reaching a political settlement diminish, according to The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. President Donald Trump prefers to reach a settlement before the midterm elections scheduled for November, and before oil prices rise again, exacerbating pressures on American consumers.

In contrast, Tehran is betting on its ability to endure until the end of Trump's term, before the re-imposed U.S. naval blockade paralyzes its already exhausted economy, and without provoking a new large-scale American or Israeli attack aimed at toppling the regime.

Options for Both Sides

Analysts believe both sides have concluded that the most appropriate option is to resume the conflict at a 'low level,' while waiting for the other side to yield. Hamid Reza Azizi, a visiting researcher specializing in Iranian affairs at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said: 'It has now become a matter of endurance.'

For Tehran, the urgent task is to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz by using its damaged but still effective fleet of speedboats and anti-ship missiles to prevent oil tankers and other vessels from leaving the Persian Gulf.

Achieving this goal would increase pressure on Trump, as happened at the beginning of the war, but the time available to do so is running short as American voters head to the polls.

Washington, meanwhile, faces the challenge of finding a way out of this impasse by weakening Iranian military positions that threaten navigation and reducing Iranian oil exports through the Gulf by re-imposing a naval blockade.

This strategy saw limited success in the early stages of the conflict, but it may yield better results as the cost to Iran increases.

Rosemary Kelinich, director of the Middle East program at the Defense Priorities research center in Washington, said: 'Iran basically believes it can attack enough ships to effectively disrupt navigation in the strait.'

She added: 'And it seems Trump believes the United States has found a way to move large quantities of oil through Hormuz, even if the Iranians do not cooperate.'

Collapse of the Ceasefire

The United States established shipping lanes off the southern coast of the Strait of Hormuz opposite Oman to help commercial vessels enter and exit the Gulf. The U.S. military said its forces helped more than 800 ships cross this narrow sea passage over the past two months.

With the collapse of the ceasefire agreement in recent days, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps managed to hit and disable ships using the southern route with missiles and drones, killing and injuring several crew members and causing concern among shipping companies.

Tehran seeks to force ships to use the northern passage of the strait, adjacent to its coast.

These attacks threaten to choke navigation again and push oil prices back up, after they briefly returned to pre-war levels last month.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 1.7% to $84.73 a barrel on Tuesday, an increase of more than 11% over the past two days. However, it remains well below the levels reached at the start of the war when it exceeded $100 a barrel.

The U.S. military said the strikes that resumed last week continued Tuesday, adding that 'its forces began conducting an additional round of strikes against Iran to further degrade Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.' The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and shipping also resumed Tuesday afternoon.

The United States used fighter jets, drones, and attack helicopters flying over the strait to intercept Iranian weapons and boats before they reached ships sailing off the Omani coast.

However, a senior U.S. official said Iran's launch of coastal anti-ship cruise missiles from close ranges made some recent attacks too fast to intercept.

The Pentagon has assigned guided-missile destroyers to support navigation operations by escorting oil tankers and other vessels leaving the Gulf to intercept Iranian missiles. However, U.S. officials say organizing naval convoys becomes impractical under full implementation of the blockade.

The officials added that these destroyers are needed in the Gulf of Oman to help prevent ships from heading to or leaving Iranian ports.

The Time Factor

In some respects, the time factor pressuring both sides with the resumption of fighting favors Tehran, as long as it can keep the conflict within manageable limits, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Azizi said: 'They do not want an escalation that spirals out of control, leaving Trump with no choice but more extreme military options.'

Although the blockade is likely to inflict further damage on Iran's economy, Tehran has already shown its ability to bear these costs, and it is currently working to rebuild its missile arsenal and air defense systems, which have been severely depleted during the war.

Alan Eyre, former senior negotiator with Iran at the U.S. State Department, now at the Middle East Institute, believes the United States will likely be unable to prevent Iran from threatening navigation in the strait without a significant increase in its military operations, a risk it will not take for domestic political reasons, as he wrote in a social media post Tuesday.

With the U.S. elections approaching, Tehran still fears that Trump might escalate attacks in pursuit of a decisive victory, rather than allowing the conflict to continue until the midterm elections.

But analysts see such a strategy as carrying significant risks for Trump, as Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, and possibly Israel as well.

The United States also faces a shortage of interceptor missiles necessary to counter Iranian missiles, making a prolonged confrontation a more dangerous option for Trump.