The World Bank's Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned that the escalation of the war in the Middle East could slow global economic growth to 1.3% in 2026, compared to 2.9% in 2025, noting that the conflict could reignite inflation and push interest rates to higher levels.

Gill stated in an interview with a news agency: "The World Bank has laid out three scenarios in its economic forecasts released last June, but the worst-case scenario, which assumes the war continues for six months or more, is becoming increasingly likely." He explained that global inflation could rise to 4.5% in this case.

Food Insecurity

He added: "The continued exchange of military strikes and damage to oil infrastructure in the region will exacerbate food insecurity, due to disruptions in shipments of fertilizers, helium, and sulfur used in agriculture."

He pointed out that poor countries, which have not fully recovered from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, will be the most vulnerable to the worsening food crisis, while heavily indebted countries will face rising borrowing costs, which will put pressure on spending for education, healthcare, and essential services.

The World Bank's Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned that the escalation of the war in the Middle East could slow global economic growth to 1.3% in 2026, compared to 2.9% in 2025, noting that the conflict could reignite inflation and push interest rates to higher levels.

Gill stated in an interview with a news agency: "The World Bank has laid out three scenarios in its economic forecasts released last June, but the worst-case scenario, which assumes the war continues for six months or more, is becoming increasingly likely." He explained that global inflation could rise to 4.5% in this case.

Food Insecurity

He added: "The continued exchange of military strikes and damage to oil infrastructure in the region will exacerbate food insecurity, due to disruptions in shipments of fertilizers, helium, and sulfur used in agriculture."

He pointed out that poor countries, which have not fully recovered from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, will be the most vulnerable to the worsening food crisis, while heavily indebted countries will face rising borrowing costs, which will put pressure on spending for education, healthcare, and essential services.