«The House is Filled with Men»

One day, Umar ibn al-Khattab (may Allah be pleased with him) asked his companions to make wishes. One said: "I wish I had this house filled with gold to spend in the cause of Allah." Then he said: "Make wishes." Another said: "I wish it were filled with pearls, emeralds, and jewels to spend in the cause of Allah and give in charity." The Farooq repeated: "Make wishes." They said: "We do not know, O Commander of the Faithful." Then Umar said: "I wish this house were filled with men like Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah."

Bravo to Umar! He recognized early the importance of the human element upon which glories are built. Recently, writings have spread warning that the homeland is threatened in the future by a problem in its most important wealth: the human being itself. These writers have built their concern on the gradual decline in the birth rate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. While in 1980 the average was 7.2 children per woman, in 2022 it reached only 2.1 children per woman! Worry about the future is legitimate, indeed noble. This is what prompted me to study the matter seriously, based on official statistics.

Citizens are divided into three age groups: first: children and youth (up to 14 years), second: working age (15 to 64 years), third: elderly (65 years and over).

Based on the proportions of these groups, the dependency ratio is determined, which ensures sustainable economic growth without straining state resources. The world has settled on the optimal ratio among these three groups to form a balanced structure that achieves stability, as follows:

Children and youth (20 to 25% of total population). This ratio ensures natural generational renewal without imposing a huge burden on the education and healthcare sectors.

Working age (60 to 65% of total population). They represent the productive force that drives the economy and supports the other groups.

Elderly (10 to 15% of total population). This ratio allows the state to provide excellent healthcare and pension systems without straining the public budget.

To maintain these ratios, a suitable birth rate must be maintained. Globally, this is called the replacement rate and stands at (2.1 children per woman) to avoid population aging or demographic explosion. It is this latter rate that the Kingdom has stabilized at in recent years, which has worried some writers.

Reviewing the percentage of each group of the Kingdom's population among Saudi citizens, according to the General Authority for Statistics report in mid-2024, we find: Children and youth up to 14 years: 33.5%. Working age from 15 to 64 years: 62.7%. Elderly 65 years and over: 3.8%.

If we include expatriates with Saudis, the ratios are as follows: Children: 21.05%, Working age: 76.3%, Elderly: 2.65%.

These are good ratios. The elderly are less than 4%, while in a country like Japan they exceed 30%, and in Monaco the elderly represent 37%, the highest percentage in the world.

The decline in the number of births is a global phenomenon, natural in our era. Machines have replaced humans, and human thought has shifted toward quality rather than quantity. Among the most prominent causes of this demographic shift and declining birth rates specifically in the Kingdom are: women's empowerment, increased levels of higher education, their accelerating participation in the labor market and entrepreneurship under Vision 2030, their preoccupation with childbearing, the migration of populations to modern urban environments (over 83% of the Kingdom's population lives in cities), as well as the increasing focus on the quality of raising children and investing in their skills rather than increasing numbers.

Although some believe that our vast area, national income, and ambitious projects require more citizens to replace expatriates - and they are right in that - I believe, based on official statistics, that the house is filled with youth. All we have to do is make them like Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, as Umar (may Allah be pleased with him) wished. Artificial intelligence (which has filled the world and amazed people) has changed the concepts of labor market needs. It is no longer enough for our youth to keep up with their era; rather, our ambition must rise to make them ahead of their time, which necessitates focusing on quality before quantity.