Between a Devastating Flood and a Deadly Drought... Does Turkey Control the Keys to the Tigris and Euphrates?

The floods that struck northern and eastern Syria at the beginning of the current month of June, and the rise in water levels in the Euphrates River due to heavy rains, in addition to the increased flow of water coming from Turkey, have reopened the door to questions about the water crisis in Syria and Iraq, and whether Turkey is using the Tigris and Euphrates rivers as a political and security pressure card.

The water crisis between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria revolves around sharing the water shares of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Turkey is the upstream country that controls the main tributaries, and its water policies and expansion in building dams on the two rivers have severely impacted water flows, exacerbated drought, and lowered water levels to near-catastrophic levels, especially in Iraq, which has been hit by a drought wave unseen in more than 80 years.

Turkey insists that the Tigris and Euphrates are transboundary rivers and that it has the right to manage their resources based on its territorial sovereignty, while Iraq and Syria demand that they be classified as international rivers and that fair-sharing standards and international laws be adopted according to signed historical agreements, such as the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and joint cooperation protocols.

Mismanagement or Depletion of Resources?

Turkey has faced accusations of using water as a pressure tool against Iraq and Syria for security reasons primarily related to the activity of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its extensions on the territories of the two countries, which evolved into military intervention through air and ground operations in the two neighboring countries, leaving a Turkish military presence that has long been a point of contention between Ankara and Baghdad in particular.

The crisis revolves around several key issues, most notably the 'Southeastern Anatolia Project' to develop eastern and southeastern Turkey, during which Turkey built huge dams and reservoirs, most notably the Ataturk, Keban, and Ilısu dams, aimed at regulating irrigation and generating energy, which significantly reduced the amounts of water reaching the transit and downstream countries, Syria and Iraq.

Water scarcity has led to severe drought in Iraq during 2025, unprecedented in 80 years (AFP)

This has reflected very negatively on Iraq in particular, as water scarcity has led to a severe crisis in the agricultural sector, shrinking agricultural areas, damage to the southern marshes listed as a World Heritage site, in addition to outbreaks of social crises and repeated environmental disturbances.

The decline in flows has also directly affected hydropower generation, drinking water for millions of people, and increased risks of pollution and disease spread in Syria during drought periods.

Diplomatic attempts have been made from time to time to resolve the disputes, resulting in understandings, joint agreements, and memorandums of understanding—sometimes bilateral, sometimes trilateral—to ensure the minimum vital needs of each country, or relying during some severe drought periods on persuading Turkey to increase flows, while Turkey insists that it is a water-poor country and maintains that the crisis in Iraq stems from local mismanagement and resource exploitation, not from its dams.

Water in Mesopotamia has often been more than a natural resource; it has been a founding element of civilization or a source of conflict, and sometimes a key to reconstruction and joint development, as reflected in the signing of a framework agreement on water and development between Iraq and Turkey in November 2025.

What the Tigris unites, the Euphrates divides

According to Turkish water researcher and writer Bilge Duman, this agreement, whose terms have not yet been fully disclosed by the parties, has emerged as an important development not only in relations between Ankara and Baghdad but also in redefining the concept of shared resource management in the Middle East.

Duman pointed out that with the emergence of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, regulating the use of resources became a political and legal necessity, but at the same time it turned into a permanent contentious file. While the Euphrates became a tripartite issue, the Tigris became a central focus of Turkish-Iraqi relations.

Euphrates floods submerged vast areas of land in Deir ez-Zor in northeastern Syria at the beginning of this June (AFP)

Early attempts were made to reach understandings on the division of shares, such as the Ankara Agreement of 1921 and the 1946 agreement between Turkey and Iraq, which laid technical foundations for cooperation, including data exchange and flood control.

Later came the Syrian-Turkish agreement of 1987, a temporary agreement for sharing the waters of the Euphrates River between Syria and Turkey during the filling period of the Ataturk Dam reservoir, which lasted five years.

The agreement was signed on July 17, 1987, and stipulated that the Turkish side would commit to providing an annual average of more than 500 cubic meters per second at the Turkish-Syrian border temporarily until a final distribution of the Euphrates waters among the three riparian states was agreed upon.

On April 17, 1989, Syria and Iraq signed an agreement stipulating that Iraq's share passing from the Syrian border would be 9.106 billion cubic meters, Syria's share 6.627 billion cubic meters, and Turkey's share 15.700 billion cubic meters per year.

Syria registered its agreement with Turkey at the United Nations in 1994 to guarantee the minimum of its rights and Iraq's rights to the Euphrates waters, but that was not enough to solve the problem.

Water for the 'Kurdistan Workers' Party'

With increasing accusations that Turkey uses water as a card to blackmail its neighbors, pressure Kurds in Syria, and push Iraq to take a stance against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and classify it as a terrorist organization, the principles of no-harm and equity in distribution were defined within the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, along with the necessity of considering the water, economic, and social needs of all concerned riparian states, as well as the needs of populations dependent on the watercourse, including direct and potential impacts.

Armed members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq (Reuters)

This convention strengthened the legal position of Iraq and Syria vis-à-vis Turkey, as they are countries with vast territories along the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates. Therefore, Syria was among the first states to ratify it immediately after its announcement, but Turkey did not join it because it saw it as harmful to its interests and water rights, and voted against its adoption.

Syria, whose lands the Euphrates irrigates over 640,000 hectares, did not resort to international arbitration to obtain its water rights from Turkey, because international law is still inconclusive in such cases, and moreover, international law requires the consent of both parties to the dispute to go to arbitration.

The Syrian support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and allowing its militants to use northern Syria as a rear base for their operations caused Turkey to become more intransigent and to link this support to water disputes.

In 1993, a round of Turkish-Syrian negotiations was held in Ankara with the aim of reaching a final agreement on water shares, which did not yield a different result from the 1987 temporary agreement, which was only linked to the filling period of Lake Ataturk.