The recent losses suffered by ISIS in Nigeria have exacerbated long-standing tensions between the organization's foreign fighters and local recruits, leading to widespread defections that enabled security authorities to obtain important intelligence that helped launch more attacks against the group's strongholds.

The assassination of Abu Bilal al-Manki, a prominent leader of ISIS in West Africa, and several of his aides in northeastern Nigeria in mid-May caused a violent shock within the organization amid a raging conflict over succession, according to a report by the African Defense Forum.

According to counterinsurgency and security expert Lazagazola Makama, the terrorists killed in a joint US-Nigerian operation in mid-May were key operational, logistical, and security elements.

Impact of defections

Since 2022, local cells in ISIS have been welcoming many foreign fighters to benefit from their extensive combat experience. But recent losses have led to defections among ISIS fighters and the withdrawal of others.

Malik Samuel, an analyst at the organization "Good Governance in Africa," said the impact of these defections is not limited to reducing ISIS's manpower, but also provides greater opportunities for gathering intelligence on the organization's structure, supply chains, financing, leadership disputes, and operational methods.

He added: "Former fighters have provided valuable information that contributed to arrest operations, intercepts, and targeted operations against rebel networks."

Samuel explained: "In many cases, the organization's leadership remains cautious in granting sensitive positions to outsiders, especially when it comes to issues of trust, ethnicity, language, clan dynamics, or operational security."

Former members describe this as a source of friction between some foreign fighters and certain local leadership categories, especially among individuals who feel that their sacrifices and expertise are not sufficiently appreciated or rewarded.

In contrast, some disgruntled foreign fighters have built relationships with local populations who feel marginalized by the leadership of ISIS in West Africa.

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Succession struggle

An analysis published by the Nigerian research institution "Nextier" warned that the succession struggle could lead to an escalation of violence and targeting of civilians.

A successor to al-Manki has not yet been announced, but leaks indicated that Baba Shuwa, a prominent leader known as Ba Shuwa, is the frontrunner and finds support from the organization's leadership in Iraq.

Among other candidates are Abu Salem, a field commander known for his combat bravery and religious authority, and Bana Chinguri, who was considered the closest deputy of Ba Shuwa.

But despite the heavy losses suffered by ISIS in West Africa and internal disputes, the organization has shown a remarkable ability to adapt in recent years.

In this context, the Nextier report said that ISIS in West Africa has shown institutional resilience over a decade of operations, leadership losses, and internal conflicts.

Heavy losses

The killing of al-Manki and more than 180 of his associates over the past two months represents the biggest loss faced by ISIS in Africa since 2018.

That operation was the broadest since the US airstrikes in northern Nigeria last December, which did not result in the killing of prominent elements.

Since the end of 2022, the continuous decline in international support for counterterrorism, as well as weak leadership in regional efforts, has created a vacuum that allows violent extremism to expand. Terrorist groups have already exploited this vacuum, using countries in the region as platforms to launch indiscriminate attacks on government forces and civilians alike.

The Nigerian Defense Intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Emmanuel Undiandeye, said the assassination of al-Manki and subsequent military operations have led to the fragmentation of the command structures of ISIS and Boko Haram, and largely dismantled their supply chains and other support networks.

According to Undiandeye, the security situation in Nigeria has improved significantly due to enhanced operational capabilities, intelligence gathering, and the use of technology in cooperation with allied countries, including France, the United Kingdom, and the United States.