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After 2024, the Hottest Year on Record .. Record Heatwaves Threaten the Atmosphere Over the Next Five Years

Doha on May 29 /QNA/ The past year, 2024, was the hottest year on record since temperature recording began 175 years ago, amid expectations that the world stands at a critical crossroads in confronting climate change.

The World Meteorological Organization, in its latest forecasts, expects that the next five years (2025-2029) will likely see global temperatures continue at record levels, with a high probability of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, the threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement as an ambitious target to limit the catastrophic impacts of climate change, and that the global annual mean near-surface temperature for each year in the next five years will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average for the period 1850-1900, with strong odds that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will break the record set in 2024.

The organization warns that every additional fraction of warming leads to more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, severe droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, in addition to ocean warming and sea level rise.

According to the report, temperature rise in the Arctic region over the next five winters is expected to be more than three and a half times the global average, and sea ice forecasts for March 2025 to March 2029 indicate further declines in sea ice concentrations in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

Compared to the reference period 1991-2020, expected precipitation patterns from May to September between 2025 and 2029 indicate above-average rainfall in the Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions for this season over the Amazon.

Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, expressed regret that the organization's report does not indicate any sign of a decline in climate warming in the coming years, meaning that negative impacts on daily life, economies, ecosystems, and the planet will increase. Barrett added that climate monitoring and prediction must continue to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help humans adapt.

Scientists attribute the continuation of global temperatures at record levels over the next five years to a set of interrelated factors, most notably the continued emissions of greenhouse gases, the cumulative effects of already-occurred warming and melting of polar ice and glaciers, and ocean warming, which absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat from global warming.

Despite international agreements such as the Paris Climate Agreement, global actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain insufficient to halt the upward trend in global temperatures. Experts indicate that the transition to renewable energy sources and a low-carbon economy is happening too slowly and hinders what is needed to achieve the goals of limiting global warming to below 1.5°C or even 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists warn that the continuation of global temperatures at record levels over the next five years will exacerbate a wide range of negative impacts on ecosystems, economies, and societies worldwide, including an increase in extreme weather events such as severe heatwaves, intense storms, and flash floods, while other regions will suffer longer and more severe droughts, negatively affecting agriculture, water supplies, and food security.

Continued rising temperatures will accelerate the melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, altering polar ecosystems and threatening species that depend on these environments. Coral reefs will experience more mass bleaching events, threatening these vital ecosystems that support about 25% of marine life. Many plant and animal species will be forced to migrate toward the poles or other areas in search of suitable climate conditions.

Continued melting of polar ice and thermal expansion of ocean waters will accelerate sea level rise, threatening low-lying coastal areas and small islands, increasing coastal erosion, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure. Changes in precipitation patterns and temperatures will reduce crop yields in many regions, especially in tropical areas, and these climate changes will lead to increased economic losses.

According to scientists and researchers, these expected impacts underscore the urgent need for immediate and ambitious actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance communities' ability to adapt to climate changes that have already become inevitable.

The State of Qatar adopts diverse strategies and implements several initiatives to address climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting natural resources, and promoting the use of renewable energy. It is steadily moving toward preparing and implementing a comprehensive national adaptation plan for climate change aimed at enhancing the country's readiness to face increasing climate challenges and mitigating their impacts on various vital sectors. It also ensures environmental protection through initiatives such as afforestation, increasing green spaces, enhancing renewable energy use, protecting biodiversity, reducing waste and pollution, and raising environmental awareness and community participation.

The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change has launched its strategy 2024-2030, which aims to achieve ambitious environmental goals, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030, restoring 30% of damaged natural resources, and protecting 30% of islands and coastal areas. The state affirms its support for UN programs in addressing climate challenges and combating terrorism, with a focus on the important role of youth in sustainability efforts. Qatar cooperates with international organizations to exchange expertise and knowledge in tackling climate change and provides necessary support to developing countries, having contributed $100 million to support capacity building for small island developing states in facing climate change.

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