Research models developed by British researchers and published in a study today (Monday) indicate that the number of heat-related deaths may exceed 2,700 cases during the recent heatwaves in England and Wales in May and June.

Experts from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine gathered weather data, climate models, and studies of excess deaths during heatwaves to arrive at this estimate.

Official estimates of heat-related deaths will be published in the coming weeks.

The UK experienced two unprecedented heatwaves in May and June, recording monthly temperature records in England of 35.1°C and 37.7°C respectively, coinciding with a widespread heatwave across most of Europe.

Mark McCarthy from the Met Office, quoted in the study, described these two heatwaves as 'particularly exceptional', noting their 'early occurrence'.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) will publish its official estimates of heat-related deaths in the coming weeks, based on death records from the recent heatwaves.

Leah Berang Ford, an official at the UKHSA, confirmed that the researchers' models 'highlight the scale of risks associated with extreme temperatures and the growing threat climate change poses to our health'.

The study estimates indicate nearly 550 deaths from extreme heat between 21 and 29 May, and about 2,200 more between 18 and 28 June in England and Wales.

The study authors emphasize the pivotal role of climate change, confirming it directly contributes to increasing the intensity and frequency of heatwaves at an accelerating pace, worsening health and environmental challenges.

The researchers estimate that peak daytime temperatures were 3 to 4°C higher than they would have been without this phenomenon, increasing health risks including heat exhaustion, strain on the heart and kidneys, and exacerbation of chronic diseases.

According to the researchers, 42% of these deaths are attributable to climate change caused by human activities, especially the intensive use of fossil fuels, underscoring the close link between industrial activities and extreme weather events.

The Climate Change Committee, the body tasked with advising the government on climate change, warned last year that the United Kingdom is 'unprepared' for the expected consequences of climate change on its territory.

In a report published in May 2026, the committee estimated that 92% of British homes could suffer from high temperatures by 2050, necessitating urgent preventive measures.

The committee recommended that the government set maximum temperature limits in workplaces and invest in air conditioning systems for public buildings such as hospitals and schools to ensure the country's readiness for the climate future.