With the publication of details of the "Mossad" (Israeli foreign intelligence) plan to overthrow the Iranian regime, which failed disastrously, voices are rising calling for the overthrow of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Barnea, the former head of Mossad and the plan's architect.

Israeli media reported on Wednesday, quoting security officials, that the plan was naive and amateurishly prepared, not professionally, and that the majority of American officials rejected it on the grounds that it was doomed to fail.

Security and political sources in Washington and Tel Aviv had revealed details of the plan in reports published by the New York Times last Sunday and Haaretz on Sunday and Monday.

The plan was drawn up before the last US-Israeli war on Iran and included several elements, foremost among them assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, exploiting the expected chaos after his death to push Iranians to protest, recruiting armed Kurdish groups to invade Tehran with the participation of members of other minorities, enlisting Azerbaijan to launch an attack from the north, as well as recruiting former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later appointing him as the new president after the overthrow of the regime.

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Early American Rejection

Netanyahu presented the plan to President Donald Trump and his aides during his visit to the White House on February 11, 2025. Barnea joined the meeting via video link from Mossad headquarters in Glilot.

According to Haaretz, the initial outcome of the meeting was deceptive, as Trump was convinced that the time had come to overthrow the regime. But the picture changed completely when he met with his advisers the next day: Vice President J.D. Vance expressed his skepticism about the Israeli plan, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared more resolute, describing it as "bullshit." CIA Director John Ratcliffe also mocked it, calling it a "farce."

The senior intelligence officials present concluded that the expectation that a Kurdish invasion would lead to the overthrow of the regime was "detached from reality." Trump, who seemed convinced by his advisers' logic, ended the discussion by saying that regime change would be "their problem."

The two newspapers published data indicating that former President Ahmadinejad agreed to work with Israel in preparation for his appointment as president, but his office issued a strongly worded statement denying this.

Ahmadinejad's office said what the newspaper published was "a complete lie," describing it as containing "Hollywood claims" and a "ridiculous scenario," in an attempt to "stir up confusion and wage psychological warfare" on Iranians.

A statement published on Ahmadinejad's website "Dolat-e Bahar" said that the former president continues his "routine affairs" and works in the service of citizens, categorically denying that he is under house arrest or that he has any ties to Israel.

Mossad Under Fire

Haaretz published a series of reactions that deemed the plan of Netanyahu and Barnea a failure. A senior security official said: "There is a failure of Mossad here, and its source is their belief that a regime with this limited capability can be overthrown."

Other sources expressed similar views, noting that this ambitious plan, which was supposed to be the fruit of years of work, was drawn up in months.

Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo said: "When I headed a special operations unit, I always supervised an effective strategic operation. We worked for two years to achieve a result."

For his part, Ram Ben Barak, former deputy head of Mossad and member of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, said: "It is impossible to implement a plan for regime change in a few months. I estimated that this plan would take at least a decade. Finding an alternative leadership, appointing a leader, recruiting personnel, and bringing weapons are all arduous efforts and endless failures."

Another Mossad source added: "This was a huge event that was supposed to last 15 years. It was supposed to be passed from one chief to another, but it cannot be done so easily. Mossad is a huge ship, and moving it takes time."

A fourth source, who previously served as a department head in Mossad, said that "such an operation requires enormous effort," adding: "You have to build a huge system, and even after building it, you cannot be sure that success is guaranteed."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Mossad Director David Barnea in Jerusalem on April 4, 2023 (dpa)

The source also pointed to another aspect: arrogance, and clinging to the goal at all costs, to the point of blindness. Just as Netanyahu did not consult his predecessors and was not swayed by the warnings of the Intelligence Directorate, so it was with senior Mossad leaders.

A security source said: "In the midst of preparations, Mossad contacted me and asked me to meet with the head of the influence division. He was the one leading the plan. I said I would come gladly. I came and said hello, but it was clear he didn't need help, and that he already knew what to do. I thanked him profusely and left."

A security source wondered: "Where were all those who should have stood up and said this is all nonsense? The experts should have said: enough, stop, you are making unfounded ideas. All these people, and no one says the king is naked?"

In the current discussions, some believe that the entire plan was a grave strategic mistake. A security source said: "You followed an illusion and created a victory story for the Iranians." He added that Mossad bears a great responsibility for this failure because it implied a high probability of success, and Netanyahu also bears part of the responsibility, as he sought from the beginning to implement the plan and proceeded with it even after being told it was futile.

Ahmadinejad speaks to his ally Saeed Jalili, adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran (archive - ILNA)

Disagreement Over Results

In contrast, other voices call for caution, considering that the plan did not succeed, but the results of the entire campaign may not become clear until after years. Proponents of this view say that Israel ended the Second Lebanon War with a feeling of bitterness, but it later obtained 17 years of quiet.

Barnea himself still believes that the Iranian regime is doomed to collapse, and expects it to happen within one to three years. However, he also acknowledges that if the United States and Iran reach an agreement that leads to the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions, there is a high probability of the regime's survival.

In fact, in such a scenario, the regime would have survived widespread protests, resisted an attack from the world's largest power, and not succumbed to a prolonged pressure campaign over the Strait of Hormuz. Money will flow in, and defense production may experience a big boom. Nevertheless, the gamble Netanyahu took could cost Israel a heavy price.

Ofer Shelah, former head of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, wrote in an article published by Haaretz on Wednesday that "the damage to Israel's security and international standing is great, no less than the damage of the October 7 massacre," considering that it resulted from inherent flaws in Israeli culture and its way of thinking.

Image published by the official IRNA news agency of Ahmadinejad offering condolences to Khamenei's sons Mostafa and Masoud. In the picture, Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Bagheri Kani is seen giving a statement to official TV in Tehran on Monday.