The French presidency is counting on two decisive factors in determining the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been ongoing for four and a half years: first, the field changes and the growing capabilities of Ukrainian forces, especially in drones and naval forces, and their ability to target vital and symbolic sites far from the front lines. Second, what Paris and some European capitals sense as a shift in the positions of US President Donald Trump, manifested at the Evian G7 summit and then at the NATO summit last week in Ankara.

This expanded summit in Paris, attended by 25 heads of state and government, most of them European, takes place within the framework of the 'coalition of the willing,' which aims to provide security guarantees for Ukraine after the end of military operations.

French and Ukrainian presidents before the start of the 'coalition of the willing' meeting in Paris on Monday (Reuters)

Amid these two important shifts, the expanded summit was held on Monday in Paris, attended by 25 heads of state and government, most of them European, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron as part of the 'coalition of the willing,' i.e., countries interested in contributing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine after military operations cease or after a peace agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow.

'Coalition of War Advocates'

Only hours passed before the Russian response came; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that this coalition is a 'coalition of war advocates,' describing it as 'deluded and war-mongering,' and confirmed that Moscow would monitor the summit closely.

Moscow had previously warned Europeans, whose coalition is led by the French president and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, against deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, which it considers hostile NATO forces. But what is new today for Western capitals is that the military difficulties facing Moscow push them to harden the terms of a political settlement and to reject the specifics of the previous US peace plan, which made Ukraine's abandonment of the entire Donbas region, including territories not under Russian control, a condition for peace between the two sides. Macron tweeted on the 'X' platform on Monday afternoon, confirming that the 'coalition of the willing' will work to 'accelerate support for Ukraine, strengthen its defense, increase pressure on Russia, and build security guarantees for tomorrow,' adding that 'the unity (of Europeans) is the source of their strength, determination, and credibility.'

It was clear that Macron took advantage of the national holiday to organize the meeting. As a gesture towards the 'coalition of the willing,' he invited a number of its leaders to be his guests on the honor platform to attend the traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées, which would be led by 500 soldiers from member states of the coalition. The parade enjoys wide public attention and was the only one of its kind in a major democracy before President Donald Trump copied it and ordered a similar parade in Washington on the occasion of American Independence Day.

French president and British prime minister during the 'coalition of the willing' summit to support Ukraine in Paris on Monday (AFP)

'Strategic Awakening'

Before the meeting, sources at the Élysée explained that the leaders seek to achieve a European 'strategic awakening' towards Russia and the United States, emphasizing that the summit will focus on a ceasefire and resumption of peace negotiations, along with strengthening Ukrainian defenses, especially in intercepting ballistic missiles.

In the view of the Élysée, this must be achieved through three mechanisms: first, providing more interceptor missiles for the Patriot system, which have become scarce due to the US-Israel-Iran war. Second, accelerating the deployment of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which rivals the US Patriot missiles. Third, working at the European level to develop alternatives to interceptor missiles through joint cooperation between Europeans and Ukrainians. After Trump told the Ukrainian president that he would enable Kyiv to produce Patriots locally, Europeans will in turn consider such a mechanism, noting that obtaining a license to produce Patriot missiles, for example, is not free and Europeans would have to bear its cost.

German chancellor and Ukrainian president on the sidelines of the 'Paris summit' on Monday (AFP)

Anti-Ballistic Missile Alliance

On Monday afternoon, the Élysée Palace distributed the 'Joint Declaration on the Establishment of the Integrated Ballistic Missile Defense Alliance' issued by the leaders of 11 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and Britain), stating that the signatory countries, 'aware of the growing threat posed by ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of defense capabilities in ensuring the security of the European continent, today announce the launch of the process of establishing a purely defensive alliance to counter ballistic missiles. They also express their support for its main project aimed at working tirelessly to develop an anti-ballistic missile defense capability.' The countries concerned believe that 'protecting Europe requires a comprehensive solution consisting of the creation of an integrated missile defense system, aimed at deterring and countering future missile threats, through collective effort, technological openness, and industrial cooperation based on trust.'

Member of the French Republican Guard standing in front of flags of countries that participated in the 'coalition of the willing' summit in Paris on Monday (AFP)

The path to that goes through 'unifying our defense industrial base, our research efforts, and our operational expertise.' The declaration set out a series of measures and mechanisms to achieve the desired goal, akin to a 'roadmap.' According to the 11 leaders, what they are doing 'does not target any people, but aims to defend our peoples.' The signatories left the door open 'for other countries that share its principles and objectives.' Macron tweeted on the 'X' platform saying, 'In the face of the ballistic threat, we have made a clear choice: to protect Ukraine, strengthen our collective security, and build a defense Europe. And by launching the ballistic coalition, we are enhancing the capabilities that Europe needs.'

Earlier, Macron said in his traditional speech to representatives of the armed forces, government, and diplomatic corps that Europe is ready to defend itself and its freedom by all means, including 'its blood' if necessary, adding that Europe is 'on its way to becoming a power' ready 'to defend itself.' Macron called in his speech for strengthening partnerships in the European defense sector, which do not seem easy to implement on the ground. Evidence of this is that the Franco-German project launched ten years ago to build a future combat aircraft at a cost of up to 100 billion euros failed miserably and was announced to be halted last month. Likewise, Germany, which launched a European alliance two years ago to build a joint air defense system involving a group of European countries, preferred to rely on US and Israeli technologies instead of focusing on European systems, including French and Italian ones.