The French presidency is betting on two key factors regarding the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, now in its fourth and a half years: first, the field shifts and accumulated capabilities of Ukrainian forces, especially in land and sea drones, and their ability to target strategic and symbolic sites far from the front line; and second, what Paris and other European capitals perceive as a change in the positions of U.S. President Donald Trump, as seen at the G7 summit in Évian and then at the NATO summit in Ankara last week.

This alliance comes within the framework of European efforts to enhance joint defense and undermine Russian influence in Ukraine.

French and Ukrainian presidents before the start of the 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting in Paris on Monday (Reuters)

Against the backdrop of these two significant shifts, the expanded summit was held Monday in Paris, bringing together 25 heads of state and government, mostly European, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron under the 'Coalition of the Willing' – i.e., countries interested in contributing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine after military operations cease or after a peace agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow.

'Coalition of War Mongers'

The Russian response was not delayed; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov quickly described the coalition on Monday as a 'coalition of war mongers, driven by deep illusions about the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on our country,' adding that Russia would closely monitor the summit.

Moscow had previously warned the Europeans, whose coalition is led by the French president and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, against deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, which it considers hostile NATO forces. But what is new today, from the perspective of Western capitals, is that the military difficulties facing Moscow are pushing them to harden the terms of a political solution and to reject the parameters of the previous U.S. peace plan, which made Ukraine's abandonment of the entire Donbas region, including areas not controlled by Russian forces, a condition for peace. Macron tweeted on platform 'X' on Monday afternoon, affirming that the 'Coalition of the Willing' would work to 'accelerate support for Ukraine, strengthen its defense, increase pressure on Russia, and build security guarantees for tomorrow,' adding that 'the unity (of Europeans) is the source of their strength, determination, and credibility.'

It was clear that Macron used the occasion of the national holiday to hold the meeting. As a gesture toward the 'Coalition of the Willing,' he invited a number of its leaders to be his guests on the honor stand at the traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées, where 500 soldiers from coalition member states will march at the front. The parade enjoys widespread public interest and was the only one of its kind in a major democracy before Trump replicated it in Washington for the U.S. Independence Day.

French president and British prime minister during the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit to support Ukraine in Paris on Monday (AFP)

'Strategic Awakening'

Sources in the French presidency pre-empted the meeting by outlining the goals the leaders seek to achieve, seeing it as an indication of the 'strategic awakening' Europeans want in the face of Russia and toward the United States. However, they simultaneously stressed that the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit would focus on pushing for a ceasefire and resuming peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, parallel to working on strengthening Ukrainian defense capabilities. The coalition focuses on enabling Kyiv to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

From the Élysée's perspective, this must be achieved through three mechanisms: first, providing more interceptor missiles for the Patriot system, which have become scarce due to the US-Israeli-Iranian war; second, accelerating the deployment of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which rivals the US Patriot; and third, working at the European level to develop alternatives to interceptor missiles through joint cooperation between Europeans and Ukrainians. After Trump told the Ukrainian president that he would enable Kyiv to produce Patriots locally, the Europeans will in turn consider such a mechanism, knowing that obtaining a license to produce Patriot missiles, for example, is not free and Europeans will have to bear the cost.

German chancellor and Ukrainian president on the sidelines of the 'Paris Summit' on Monday (AFP)

Coalition for Ballistic Missile Defense

On Monday afternoon, the Élysée Palace distributed the 'Joint Declaration on the Establishment of the Integrated Coalition to Counter Ballistic Missiles' issued by leaders of 11 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom), stating that the signatory countries, 'aware of the growing threat posed by ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of defense capabilities in ensuring the security of the European continent, today announce the launch of the process of establishing a purely defensive coalition to counter ballistic missiles. They also express their support for its main project aimed at working tirelessly to develop a ballistic missile defense capability.' The countries concerned believe that 'protecting Europe requires a comprehensive solution consisting of establishing an integrated missile defense system; with the aim of deterring and countering future missile threats, through collective effort, technological openness, and trust-based industrial cooperation.'

A member of the French Republican Guard standing in front of the flags of countries that participated in the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit in Paris on Monday (AFP)

The path to achieving this goes through 'unifying our defense industrial base, our research efforts, and our operational expertise.' The declaration outlined a set of measures and mechanisms to achieve the desired goal, resembling a 'roadmap.' According to the 11 leaders, what they are doing 'does not target any people, but aims to defend our peoples.' The signatories left the door open 'for other countries that share its principles and objectives.' Macron tweeted on platform 'X' saying, 'Faced with the ballistic threat, we have made a clear choice: to protect Ukraine, strengthen our collective security, and build a defensive Europe. By launching the ballistic coalition, we enhance the capabilities that Europe needs.'

Earlier, Macron, in his traditional speech before representatives of the armed forces, government, and diplomatic corps, said that Europe is ready to defend itself and its freedom by all means, including 'its blood' if necessary, adding that Europe is 'on the way to becoming a power' ready 'to defend itself.' In his speech, Macron called for strengthening partnerships in the European defense sector, which does not seem easy to translate on the ground; evidence of this is that the Franco-German project launched ten years ago to build a future combat aircraft at a cost of up to 100 billion euros failed miserably and its suspension was announced last month. Likewise, Germany, which launched a European alliance two years ago to build a joint air defense system including a group of European countries, preferred to resort to US and Israeli technologies instead of focusing on European systems, including French and Italian ones.