The decision by Sadrist movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr to move from silence to open support for the anti-corruption campaign led by Prime Minister Ali al-Zeidi appears to mark a turning point in Iraqi political balances, as it opens the door to a direct confrontation with the forces of the ‘Coordination Framework,’ after years of competition between the two sides through political and electoral tools rather than open confrontation.

The first notable reaction came from the leader of the State of Law coalition and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who defended the Coordination Framework as a political project that has proven successful, in a move widely interpreted as an attempt to contain the growing pressures facing the ruling Shiite coalition.

These developments come as signs of divergence emerge within the forces of the Coordination Framework, which was formed after the 2021 elections as an alternative to the traditional Shiite alliances that have succeeded one another since the 2005 elections, starting with the United Iraqi Alliance, which was said at the time to have the support of the religious establishment, then the National Alliance, and finally the current formula that emerged after the Sadrist movement left the ruling equation.

Archival photo of Sadrist movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr (Reuters)

Sadr's Silence

After the 2021 elections, Sadr had attempted to form a ‘national majority’ government that included the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani and a Sunni alliance led by former Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi, but the project stalled due to what was known as the ‘blocking third,’ which prevented the election of the president of the republic by the constitutionally required majority, leading to continued political deadlock.

In the summer of 2022, Sadr decided to withdraw his deputies from parliament, announcing his withdrawal from the political process. Addressing his parliamentary bloc members at the time, he said: ‘I decided to withdraw from the political process so as not to participate with the corrupt in any way.’ He added that he would not participate in any elections in the ‘presence of the corrupt,’ calling on his supporters to maintain their political and popular organization in preparation for any future stage if circumstances change.

Since then, Sadr has boycotted subsequent elections, including the most recent one, despite repeated calls for him to return to the political process, including from his opponents within the Coordination Framework.

Anti-Corruption Campaign Changes the Equation

The most notable development came with the anti-corruption campaign launched by Ali al-Zeidi's government, which culminated in the arrest of 21 political and parliamentary figures in what was known as Operation ‘Dawn Raid’.

The campaign gained momentum after Judge Diaa Jaafar, who is in charge of the investigation, announced that part of the embezzled funds was used to finance election campaigns, a statement that raised widespread questions about the integrity of the last electoral process and the extent of political money's influence on its results.

Observers believe that these developments provided Sadr with a political platform that intersects with the positions he declared since his withdrawal from parliament, based on refusing to participate in a system he considers tainted by corruption.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zeidi (Government Media)

Option of Settlement or Reshaping?

The selection of Ali al-Zeidi as prime minister came after the forces of the Coordination Framework failed to agree on a candidate from within their ranks. After excluding a second term for former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and the faltering chances of Nouri al-Maliki's nomination amid internal and external objections, the political forces turned to selecting a figure from outside the traditional political class.

Al-Zeidi, a businessman in his forties, is seen as an acceptable option for Washington, in contrast to an Iranian position marked by caution and a lack of usual enthusiasm, amid a decline in Iranian influence in Iraq compared to previous years.

Al-Zeidi's positions have also drawn attention since the early days of his tenure, whether by not participating in the funeral ceremonies of the late Iranian guide Ali Khamenei, which were attended by a number of Coordination Framework leaders and the official Iraqi delegation headed by President Nizar Amidi, or by announcing his intention to strengthen relations with the United States, with expectations of a visit to Washington within weeks.

Domestically, al-Zeidi announced his intention to proceed with disarming armed factions, giving those factions a deadline ending in September, a file that successive Iraqi governments have failed to resolve due to its political and security complexities.

Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr wave the Iraqi flag during a demonstration in support of the Iraqi government's anti-corruption measures in Najaf (AP)

Sadr Breaks Silence

The turning point came when Sadr announced his full adoption of the anti-corruption campaign, describing al-Zeidi as a ‘soldier of reform,’ in a step that went beyond political endorsement to granting the government broad popular cover.

This was followed by demonstrations in support of the campaign, and Sadrist leaders began to engage in supporting it after months of maintaining silence pending Sadr's directives.

Observers believe that this development represents the first broad political and popular alignment against the forces dominating power since 2003, especially as the anti-corruption campaign has targeted figures affiliated with influential forces within the Coordination Framework.

Adding to the sensitivity of the scene is that the priorities of al-Zeidi's government, foremost among them fighting corruption and monopolizing weapons in the hands of the state, intersect with the priorities of US President Donald Trump's administration toward Iraq, which, according to analysts, creates an intersection of interests between Washington and the Sadrist movement, despite fundamental differences between them on other issues.

Pressure on the Coordination Framework

This intersection does not mean there is a direct political alliance between Sadr and the US administration, but it gives the government support from two sides traditionally seen as opposing poles in the Iraqi scene, which multiplies pressure on the Coordination Framework.

Facing these developments, Nouri al-Maliki rushed to defend the Coordination Framework, affirming in a post on platform X that the alliance ‘constituted a incubator for the national political process’ and that its success was embodied in forming three successive governments.

He added that ‘there is no reason to abandon a project that has proven its success,’ stressing that ‘the Framework will remain a framework as it was founded, preserving its constants, identity, and founders,’ considering that any development should be limited to mechanisms of work and performance, not affecting the essence of the project.