Khamenei's Funeral: How It Revealed 'Cracks in the System' in Iran?
The funeral ceremony for Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei showed a temporary gathering of a political and military elite suffering from deep divisions, amid growing questions about the absence of his successor, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, from the public scene since his rise to power last March.
Senior officials and military commanders, who had not appeared together in public for weeks, walked side by side during the ceremony. Leading the scene were President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the head of the judiciary, and top generals of the Revolutionary Guard, in a step by which funeral organizers sought to project the system's 'unity and continuity.'
However, Mojtaba Khamenei's absence highlighted the intense behind-the-scenes struggle over the country's management and decision-making, especially regarding diplomatic negotiations with Washington.
According to sources of the American newspaper The New York Times, the absence of the former supreme leader, who monopolized the final decision, led to an explosion of differences within the Iranian conservative camp, splitting it into two main wings: the pragmatic current, including Pezeshkian and Qalibaf, and the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, General Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, supported by leaders of the Revolutionary Guard.
This wing pushes for a 'grand deal' with Washington, including a ceasefire and a complete lifting of the naval blockade to save the deteriorating economy.
The other wing consists of the hardline minority that rejects any political or nuclear concessions to the US administration, demanding military retaliation and prolonging the confrontation, accusing the negotiation team of 'collusion and treason.'
Backstage of the agreement: Four responsible sources in Tehran told The New York Times that Mojtaba Khamenei's decision to agree 'in principle' to proceed with understandings with Washington came under severe economic pressures.
The sources said Pezeshkian informed the new leader in a closed meeting that the US naval blockade 'paralyzes the country' and that he intends to resign if the agreement is rejected.
Additionally, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati reinforced this stance with a warning message stating that stocks of essential food and medical goods face the risk of depletion by the end of next August, due to the inability to export oil and the difficulty of finding alternative trade channels.
These pressures led to a vote by the Supreme National Security Council, with a majority of 12 votes in favor versus one against, in support of accepting the agreement and starting direct talks with US officials, including Vice President JD Vance.
Collective leadership and media rift: Lately, there has been a notable shift in Iran's governance structure toward 'collective leadership' compared to the absolute rule exercised by Khamenei the elder.
In a statement reflecting this shift, the Vice President for Executive Affairs, Mohammad Jafar Qaem Panah, told government officials that the new leader's opinion 'is subject to discussion and study like that of other officials,' asking: 'If we are only required to implement the views of the Supreme Leader, why do we have a parliament and a National Security Council?'
This coincided with a struggle over official platforms, as live TV broadcast was suddenly cut off from Qalibaf while he was presenting the details of the ceasefire agreement, amid repeated attacks by state television on the negotiating team.
Video clips also showed Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi being harassed and subjected to hostile chants by Iranian visitors while he was in Iraq to organize the external part of the memorial ceremonies.
In a related context, Iranian military sources attributed the continued absence of Mojtaba Khamenei from the public eye to 'extreme security concerns.'
Officials said security agencies rejected a request by the leader to lead the funeral prayer in the city of Mashhad, scheduled for July 9, for fear of Israeli assassination attempts or tracking his secret residence.
Observers and political figures in Tehran consider that the main test for the sustainability of 'absentee rule' will be in the upcoming package of appointments after the funeral, which includes heads of the judiciary, the Broadcasting Corporation, the Basij forces, and the office of the Supreme Leader, where the identity of the appointees will determine which wing the new leader leans toward.
Original source: Sky News Arabia
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