Israeli Estimates: Return of War in Gaza Before October Elections

4 July 2026 - 14:12 | Last update 4 July 2026 - 14:12

Israeli soldier near an armored personnel carrier on the Gaza border

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Israeli estimates predicted the return of war in the Gaza Strip within two to three months, i.e., before the upcoming legislative elections in October, if Hamas is deemed to have violated the ceasefire agreement by retaining its weapons.

According to Israel's Channel 12, Israel expects the 'Peace Council,' which oversees the reconstruction of Gaza under the chairmanship of US President Donald Trump, to declare that Hamas has breached the agreement if no change occurs on the weapons file in the coming months.

It also mentioned that the Council's Director General, Nikolay Mladenov, previously studied issuing such a statement, but he froze the step in response to mediators' request to give them an additional opportunity to convince the movement to adhere to the agreement's terms.

According to Israeli estimates, declaring Hamas in violation of the agreement could allow the Israeli army to resume its operations in areas it does not currently control within the strip, which could lead to a return of fighting.

Israel continues to stress that disarming Hamas is a fundamental condition for any permanent settlement in Gaza, considering ending the movement's rule and stripping it of weapons as two main goals of the war.

The Walla website reported that the Israeli army has reinforced its deployment on the border with Jordan by deploying an additional division, in anticipation of security scenarios similar to the October 7, 2023 attack.

These developments coincide with Israel's preparation for legislative elections in October, amid a crisis within the ruling coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu, in a test seen as a measure of his government's future and his right-wing camp's ability to maintain a parliamentary majority.

In contrast, sources in Hamas revealed that its official response to the proposed roadmap for the second phase of the ceasefire agreement excluded any texts related to disarmament or handing over weapons, adopting a formula that speaks of 'limitation, collection, and storage of weapons,' which does not mean abandoning the resistance's weapons.

Israeli reports indicated that the United States is proceeding with implementing a gradual reconstruction plan in areas inside Gaza, even without disarming Hamas, with expectations of completing infrastructure preparations within three to six months, and establishing a new Palestinian police force trained in Egypt, along with an international stabilization force.

These developments come as Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement continue, amid ongoing disagreements over Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and the future of Palestinian weapons.

Gaza return of war elections October Israel