Wheat Near Two-Month High Amid Return of Fighting Between Russia and Ukraine

Bloomberg

Thursday, July 16, 2026 10:23 | 2 minutes read

Wheat futures held gains after jumping 5% on Wednesday, as mutual strikes between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea threaten one of the most important export routes for the two warring countries.

The most-traded contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade fluctuated between slight gains and losses on Thursday, after jumping to near a two-month high following heightened tensions.

Ukrainian forces targeted a number of Russian ships in the Black Sea, after attacking more than 100 vessels linked to Russia in the Sea of Azov in recent days.

Mon, 06 2026

Escalation of Attacks Between Russia and Ukraine

In response, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian ports, targeting cargo ships in the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi. The Black Sea is a vital artery for trade between the two countries, with Russia topping the list of the world's largest wheat exporters.

Reuters reported, citing the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, that Kyiv has already lost a third of its grain export capacity through Black Sea ports due to the escalation of Moscow's strikes.

A note from the Hightower Report on Wednesday said, 'It appears that Russia and Ukraine are focusing on reducing each other's export revenues, which supports higher prices.'

This situation recalls the Black Sea supply shock at the start of the war in 2022, when ports closed and millions of tons of grain were stranded.

Fri, 05 2026

Impact on Global Grain Markets

Vitor Pestoya, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank, said 'The market reaction this time is likely to be more limited.' Although both events occurred during a period of tight global supplies, the timing differs.

He added, 'In 2022, the war escalated before the spring planting season and crop growth began, so the markets priced in risks of lower production alongside export disruptions. In 2026, the focus has been more on exports.'

Global Grain Prices Today

Wheat fell 0.3% to $6.7575 per bushel at 3 a.m. GMT, soybean prices rose 0.4% to $11.9750 per bushel, while corn prices fell 0.2% to $4.6875 per bushel.