A new poll in Israel on Monday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing his main rival, former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, by a significant margin, with 43% of Israeli voters saying they prefer Eisenkot as prime minister, compared to 34% for the current prime minister.

According to the Channel 12 poll, conducted ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, the blocs supporting and opposing Netanyahu remain largely unchanged from months ago.

The anti-Netanyahu alliance would win 59 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, according to the poll, short of the required majority of 61, while the pro-Netanyahu bloc would get 51 seats.

The Arab parties, most of which have not joined Israeli coalition governments, would get the remaining 10 seats.

Eisenkot's party advances

Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in the latest poll indicates a decline in the popularity of the current Israeli prime minister.

Eisenkot has strengthened his position as leader of the anti-Netanyahu camp, with polls showing his party would win the most votes if elections were held today.

Another candidate, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, received 35% in a direct head-to-head poll with Netanyahu, who got 37%.

A party poll showed that Eisenkot's 'Yashar' party would win the most seats, with 23, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 22. The opposition centrist-right party 'Beiahd' led by Bennett would win 16 seats.

The left-wing Democratic Party and the hardline 'Yisrael Beiteinu' party, both opposed to Netanyahu, would each get 10 seats, according to the poll.

The ultra-Orthodox Shas party, United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, all supporters of Netanyahu, would each get 8 seats, according to the poll.

Changing political trends in Israel

The far-right Religious Zionism party, representing the pro-Netanyahu camp, would get 5 seats. The two Arab parties, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am, would each get 5 seats.

The poll also showed that some other factions on the center-right would fail to enter the Knesset.

Channel 12 surveyed Israeli voters on the impact of the October 7, 2023 attacks led by the Palestinian Hamas movement on their political leanings, with 38% saying they leaned to the right after the attack, while 49% said their political leanings remained unchanged. 7% said they leaned to the left.

The poll also included a question about whether voters support Netanyahu's agreement with the ultra-Orthodox parties to pass laws defining Torah study as a 'core value' and freezing the arrest of draft dodgers in exchange for their support for legislation aimed at significantly weakening the attorney general's powers and granting the government the authority to form a committee to investigate the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 attacks, as well as a bill to reform the media.

62% of poll participants expressed opposition to the agreement, compared to 22% who supported it, while the rest did not express an opinion. Opposition to the agreement among coalition voters was 18%, rising sharply to 95% among opposition voters.

Major alliances in the Israeli elections

The upcoming Israeli elections in October feature four main camps: 'Netanyahu's alliance,' which includes the ruling Likud party led by Netanyahu, Religious Zionism led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir, Shas led by Aryeh Deri, and United Torah Judaism representing Western ultra-Orthodox parties, led by a council of rabbis and party leaders.

The anti-Netanyahu camp includes 'Yashar' led by Gadi Eisenkot, 'Beiahd' led by Naftali Bennett, 'Yisrael Beitenu' led by Avigdor Lieberman, and 'The Democrats'.

Arab parties in Israel are contesting the elections on four lists: the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab List for Change, the National Democratic Assembly, and the United Arab List, amid attempts to unify them, but those attempts have not yet succeeded.

All electoral blocs in Israel have agreed to exclude Arab parties from any ruling coalition after the elections, except for the Democrats so far.

The fourth electoral camp in Israel consists of alliances between Jewish figures and parties calling for various political forces to enter a 'comprehensive national unity' government that excludes Arab parties.