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The monthly report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on oil market developments on Monday showed that the organization lowered its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2026 by 190,000 barrels per day to 800,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive downward revision.

In contrast, OPEC raised its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2027 by 210,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day.

Oil prices jump more than 2% amid exchange of strikes between the US and Iran

The organization also kept its global economic growth forecasts unchanged, expecting growth of 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027, according to its monthly report on oil market developments.

OPEC still expects a lesser impact on consumption since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran compared to forecasts from other entities that expect demand to decline in 2026, such as the International Energy Agency.

The renewed strikes between the United States and Iran at the start of the week raised fears of a new escalation. Tehran targeted US facilities in the Gulf on Sunday and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said on Monday that it attacked US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Before the conflict erupted in late February, about a fifth of the global daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Data showed that ship traffic through the strait fell on Sunday to its lowest level in five weeks. According to Kepler, only six ships crossed the strait yesterday.

The escalation of attacks cast further doubt on the future of the interim agreement between the United States and Iran signed last month to reopen the strait and end the war after another 60 days of negotiations.

The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June after the agreement was reached, but it remained about 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs estimated that expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could protect more than 60% of Gulf oil exports at pre-war levels from any future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2028.

The bank's baseline forecasts assume that pipeline capacity avoiding the Strait of Hormuz will increase by 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2027 and by 7.3 million barrels per day cumulatively by the end of 2028, raising total effective capacity to more than 14 million barrels per day by the end of 2028.

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