With the publication of details of the 'Mossad' (Israeli foreign intelligence) plan to overthrow the Iranian regime, which failed disastrously, voices began to rise calling for the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Barnea, the former Mossad chief and architect of the plan.

Israeli media reported on Wednesday, quoting security officials, that the plan was naive and prepared in an amateurish rather than professional manner, and that most US officials rejected it on the grounds that it was doomed to fail.

Security and political sources in Washington and Tel Aviv had revealed details of the plan in reports published by the New York Times last Sunday and by Haaretz on Sunday and Monday.

The plan had been developed before the latest US-Israeli war on Iran, and included several elements, foremost among them killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, exploiting the expected chaos after his death to push Iranians to protest, recruiting armed Kurdish groups to storm Tehran with participation from other minorities, using Azerbaijan to launch an attack from the north, as well as recruiting former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later installing him as the new president after the overthrow of the regime.

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Early American rejection

Netanyahu presented the plan to President Donald Trump and his aides during his visit to the White House on February 11, 2025. Barnea joined the meeting via video link from Mossad headquarters in Glilot.

According to Haaretz, the initial outcome of the meeting was deceptive, as Trump was convinced that the time had come to overthrow the regime. But the picture changed completely when he met with his advisers the next day: Vice President JD Vance expressed skepticism about the Israeli plan, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared more resolute, calling it 'nonsense.' CIA Director John Ratcliffe also mocked it, deeming it a 'farce.'

Senior intelligence officials present concluded that the expectation that a Kurdish invasion would lead to the overthrow of the regime was 'detached from reality.' Trump, who seemed convinced by his advisers' reasoning, concluded the discussion by saying that regime change would be 'their problem.'

The two newspapers published data indicating that former President Ahmadinejad agreed to work with Israel in preparation for his appointment as president, but his office issued a strongly worded statement denying that.

Ahmadinejad's office said what the newspaper published was 'a complete lie,' describing it as containing 'Hollywood claims' and a 'ridiculous scenario' in an attempt to 'cause confusion and wage psychological warfare' on Iranians.

A statement published by Ahmadinejad's website 'Dolat-e Bahar' said that the former president continues his 'usual affairs' and works in service of citizens, categorically denying that he is under house arrest or has any ties to Israel.

Mossad in the crosshairs of criticism

Haaretz published a series of reactions that considered Netanyahu and Barnea's plan a failure. A senior security official said: 'There is a failure of the Mossad here, stemming from their belief that a regime could be overthrown with such limited capability.'

Other sources expressed similar views, noting that this ambitious plan, which was supposed to be the fruit of years of work, was prepared in months.

Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo said: 'When I headed a special operations unit, I always oversaw an effective strategic process. We would work for two years to achieve a result.'

For his part, Ram Ben Barak, former deputy Mossad chief and member of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, said: 'It is impossible to implement a plan to change the regime in a few months. I estimated that this plan would take at least a decade. Finding alternative leadership, appointing a leader, recruiting personnel, bringing weapons—all are arduous efforts and endless failures.'

Another Mossad source added: 'This is a massive undertaking that was supposed to take 15 years. It is supposed to be handed down from one chief to the next, but it cannot be accomplished so easily. The Mossad is a huge ship, and turning it takes time.'

A fourth source, who previously served as a department head in the Mossad, said: 'Such an operation requires enormous effort,' adding: 'You have to build a huge system, and even after building it, you cannot be certain that success is guaranteed.'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Mossad Director David Barnea in Jerusalem on April 4, 2023 (dpa)

The source also pointed to another aspect: arrogance, and clinging to the goal no matter the cost, to the point of blindness. Just as Netanyahu did not consult his predecessors and was not swayed by warnings from the intelligence directorate, so it was with top Mossad leaders.

A security source said: 'In the midst of preparations, the Mossad called me and asked me to meet the head of the influence department. He was the one leading the plan. I said I would come gladly. I came and greeted him, but it was clear he did not need help and already knew what to do. I thanked him profusely and left.'

A security source wondered: 'Where were all those who should have stood up and said this is all nonsense? The experts should have said: Enough, stop, you are presenting baseless ideas. All these people, and no one says the emperor has no clothes?'

In current discussions, some believe that the entire plan was a grave strategic mistake. A security source said: 'You followed an illusion and created a victory story for the Iranians.' He added that the Mossad bears significant responsibility for this failure because it suggested a high probability of success, and Netanyahu also bears part of the responsibility, as he sought to implement the plan from the beginning and continued with it even after being told it was futile.

Ahmadinejad speaking to his ally Saeed Jalili, adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran (archive - ILNA)

Disagreement over the results

In contrast, other voices urge patience, arguing that the plan did not succeed, but the results of the entire campaign may not become clear for years. Proponents of this view say that Israel ended the Second Lebanon War with a feeling of bitterness, but then enjoyed 17 years of calm.

Barnea himself still believes that the Iranian regime is doomed to collapse, and predicts this will happen within one to three years. However, he also acknowledges that if the US and Iran reach an agreement that leads to asset release and sanctions relief, there is a high probability that the regime will survive.

In fact, in such a scenario, the regime would have withstood widespread protests, resisted an attack from the world's biggest power, and not succumbed to a prolonged pressure campaign over the Strait of Hormuz. Money would flow in, and defense production could see a significant boom. Nevertheless, the gamble Netanyahu took could cost Israel dearly.

Ofer Shelah, former head of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, wrote in an article published by Haaretz on Wednesday that 'the damage to Israel's security and international standing is great, no less than the damage of the October 7 massacre,' attributing it to inherent flaws in Israeli culture and thinking.

A photo published by the official IRNA news agency of Ahmadinejad offering condolences to Khamenei's sons Mustafa and Masoud, with National Security Council Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani seen giving a statement to state television in Tehran on Monday