The French presidency is banking on two main axes regarding the future of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been ongoing for four and a half years: first, the accelerating field developments and the qualitative capabilities acquired by Ukrainian forces, especially in the field of aerial and naval drones, and their ability to strike vital and symbolic targets far from the front lines; second, what Paris and some European capitals perceive as a shift in the positions of US President Donald Trump, which was evident at the G7 summit in Évian and then at the NATO summit last week in Ankara.

This expanded summit hosted by Paris came within the framework of the "Coalition of the Willing," an international grouping aimed at providing security guarantees for Ukraine after the end of military operations or the signing of a peace agreement.

The French and Ukrainian presidents before the start of the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris on Monday (Reuters)

Against the backdrop of these two significant shifts, an expanded summit was held on Monday in Paris, bringing together 25 heads of state and government, most of them European, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron within the framework of the "Coalition of the Willing," i.e., countries interested in contributing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine after military operations cease or after a peace agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow.

"Coalition of War Advocates"

The Russian reaction was not long in coming; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday was quick to describe the coalition as "a coalition of war advocates, driven by deep illusions about the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on our country, it is a coalition of the deceived and those who fuel war," adding that Moscow would closely follow the summit's proceedings.

Moscow had previously warned the Europeans, whose coalition is led by the French President and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, against deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, which it considers hostile NATO forces. But what is new today, from the perspective of Western capitals, is that the military difficulties facing Moscow are driving them to harden the terms of a political solution and to reject the benchmarks of the previous US peace plan, which made Ukraine's abandonment of the entire Donbas region, including territories not controlled by Russian forces, a condition for peace between the two sides. Macron tweeted on platform X on Monday afternoon, affirming that the "Coalition of the Willing" would work to "accelerate support for Ukraine, strengthen its defense, increase pressure on Russia, and build security guarantees for tomorrow," adding that "the unity (of Europeans) is the source of their strength, resolve, and credibility."

It was clear that Macron took advantage of the national holiday to hold the meeting. As a gesture towards the "Coalition of the Willing," he invited a number of its leaders to be his guests on the honor platform to watch the traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées, led by 500 soldiers from the coalition member states. The parade draws broad popular interest and was the only one of its kind in a major democracy before President Donald Trump replicated it on US Independence Day.

The French President and the British Prime Minister during the "Coalition of the Willing" summit to support Ukraine in Paris on Monday (AFP)

"Strategic Awakening"

Sources in the French presidency preceded the meeting by outlining the objectives the leaders seek to achieve, seeing it as an indication of the "strategic awakening" that Europeans want in the face of Russia and towards the United States. However, they simultaneously stressed that the "Coalition of the Willing" summit would focus on pushing for a ceasefire and resuming peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv in parallel with work to strengthen Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The coalition focuses on enabling Kyiv to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

From the Élysée's perspective, this should be achieved through three mechanisms: first, providing more interceptor missiles for the Patriot system, which have become scarce due to the US-Israeli-Iranian war; second, accelerating the deployment of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which is comparable to the US Patriot missiles; and third, working at the European level to develop alternatives to interceptor missiles through joint cooperation between Europeans and Ukrainians. After Trump told the Ukrainian president that he would enable Kyiv to produce Patriots locally, the Europeans will in turn consider such a mechanism, noting that obtaining a license to produce Patriot missiles, for example, is not free and the Europeans would have to bear the cost.

The German Chancellor and the Ukrainian President on the sidelines of the "Paris Summit" on Monday (AFP)

Ballistic Missile Defense Coalition

On Monday afternoon, the Élysée Palace distributed the "Joint Declaration on the Establishment of the Integrated Coalition for Countering Ballistic Missiles" issued by the leaders of 11 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and Britain), stating that the signatory countries, "aware of the growing threat posed by ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of defense capabilities in ensuring the security of the European continent, today announce the launch of the process of establishing a purely defensive coalition to counter ballistic missiles. They also express their support for its main project aimed at working tirelessly to develop an anti-ballistic missile defense capability." The countries concerned believe that "the protection of Europe requires a comprehensive solution consisting of the establishment of an integrated missile defense system, with the aim of deterring and countering future missile threats, through collective effort, technological openness, and trust-based industrial cooperation."

A member of the French Republican Guard standing in front of the flags of the countries that participated in the "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris on Monday (AFP)

As for the path to that, it goes through "unifying our defense industrial base, our research efforts, and our operational expertise." The declaration stipulated a set of measures and mechanisms to achieve the desired goal, or what resembles a "roadmap." According to the 11 leaders, what they are doing "is not directed against any people, but aims to defend our peoples." The signatories left the door open "to other countries that share its principles and objectives." Macron tweeted on platform X, saying, "In the face of the ballistic threat, we have made a clear choice: to protect Ukraine, strengthen our collective security, and build a defense Europe. And by launching the ballistic coalition, we are strengthening the capabilities that Europe needs."