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Is China Escalating the Taiwan Conflict Next Year?

Adnan Kamel Salah

Date of Publication: July 6, 2026 23:40 KSA

When the industrial boom brought wealth to a number of European countries during the 19th century, rising powers sought to carve up the Chinese Empire, impose their rule, and seize its riches. Europeans believed at the time that the wealth they had achieved in that industrial era would last, making their empires—especially the British—rule the world and turn their countries into paradises on earth. Likewise, a similar belief prevails these days among countries that have experienced sudden wealth.

China has returned today to become a powerful empire feared by many nations. Economic competition has escalated in a way that threatens direct wars, not just proxy ones as is the case now, in the quest for hegemony over wealth and its routes around the world, almost reminiscent of past eras. After people were—or were led to believe—that the prosperity achieved would include everyone and lead to lasting stability, Donald Trump's rise to the presidency in the United States has ushered in a new phase of global competition for hegemony. It has also contributed to deteriorating Europe's relations with Washington. European countries faced a serious escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Trump raised the banner of "America First" as the foundation of his administration during his presidential term.

To counter the decline of American global hegemony and its impact on the U.S. economy, Trump announced a series of tariffs on foreign goods entering American markets, preventing foreign goods from competing with domestically manufactured prices. Meanwhile, China continued its trade expansion across the world. It recently announced a zero-tariff policy on goods coming from Africa (covering 53 African countries), effective from May 1 of this year until April 30, 2028. It also announced preferential treatment for 20 African countries. China has become Africa's largest trading partner, surpassing the United States. Trade volume between China and Africa last year, 2025, reached approximately $348 billion. (U.S.-Africa trade volume was about $105 billion in 2024). The pace of competition between China and the United States is accelerating, especially regarding Taiwan. Next year (2027) is expected to see a new escalation of confrontation over the island, after it was reported that Chinese President Xi asked his military leaders to prepare for an unspecified "action" regarding Taiwan starting next year. A military invasion of Taiwan is unlikely; what China may be preparing is a military blockade of Taiwan, challenging the United States, preventing entry and exit to and from the island without Beijing's approval. The coming days will witness an escalation that will allow regional powers to flex their muscles. What we are seeing from the current Iranian regime's adventures, exposing the region to more turmoil and instability, is only an initial indicator of what the region may face during the turbulent global situation. The region's countries must prepare for that.

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