A new poll in Israel on Monday showed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing his main rival, former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot, by a large margin, with 43% of Israeli voters saying they prefer Eizenkot as prime minister, compared to 34% for the current prime minister.

According to the Israeli Channel 12 poll, conducted ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs remain almost unchanged since months.

The anti-Netanyahu alliance would win 59 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, according to the poll, less than the required majority of 61 seats, while the pro-Netanyahu alliance would win 51 seats.

As for the Arab parties, most of which have not joined Israeli coalition governments, they would get the remaining ten seats.

Eizenkot's party leads

Eizenkot's lead over Netanyahu in the latest poll points to a decline in popularity of the current Israeli prime minister.

Eizenkot has strengthened his position as leader of the anti-Netanyahu camp, as polls show his party would win the most votes if elections were held today.

Another candidate, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, received 35% of the vote in a direct head-to-head poll with Netanyahu, who got 37%.

The party opinion poll showed that Eizenkot's 'Yashar' party would win the most seats, with 23, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 22. As for the opposition 'Beyahad' party, a center-right party led by Bennett, it would win 16 seats.

According to the poll, the left-wing Democratic Party and the hawkish Yisrael Beiteinu party, both opposed to Netanyahu, would each win 10 seats.

According to the poll, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, all supporters of Netanyahu, would each win 8 seats.

Change in political orientations in Israel

As for the far-right Religious Zionism party, which represents the pro-Netanyahu camp, it would win 5 seats. Also, the two Arab parties, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am, would each win 5 seats.

The poll also showed that some other center-right factions would not be able to enter the Knesset.

Channel 12 polled Israeli voters on the impact of the October 7, 2023, attacks led by the Palestinian Hamas movement on their political orientations, with 38% saying they leaned to the right after the attack, while 49% saw no change. 7% said they leaned to the left.

The poll also included a question on whether voters support Netanyahu's agreement with the Haredi parties to pass laws defining Torah study as a 'core value' and freezing arrests of draft dodgers, in exchange for their support for legislation aimed at significantly weakening the powers of the attorney general and granting the government the authority to form a committee to investigate the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 attacks, as well as a draft bill for media reform.

62% of poll participants expressed opposition to the agreement, compared to 22% who supported it, while the rest had no opinion. The opposition to the agreement among voters of the governing coalition was 18%, which rose sharply to 95% among opposition voters.

Main alliances in the Israeli elections

The Israeli elections scheduled for next October feature four main camps: the 'Netanyahu coalition' comprising the ruling Likud party led by Netanyahu, Religious Zionism led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) led by Itamar Ben Gvir, Shas led by Aryeh Deri, and Yahadut HaTorah (United Torah Judaism) representing the Western Haredi parties, led by a council of rabbis and party leaders.

The anti-Netanyahu camp includes the Yashar party led by Gadi Eizenkot, Beyahad led by Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the Democrats.

Arab parties in Israel are contesting the elections through four lists: the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab List for Change, the National Democratic Assembly, and the United Arab List, amid attempts to unify them, but those attempts have not succeeded so far.

All electoral blocs in Israel agreed to exclude Arab parties from participating in any governing coalition after the elections, except for the Democrats so far.

The fourth electoral camp in Israel consists of alliances among Jewish figures and parties that call on various political forces to enter a 'comprehensive national unity' government that excludes Arab parties.