Why are China and India absent from the World Cup?

The FIFA World Cup represents the largest commercial and consumer event on the planet, with expected revenues for the 2026 World Cup estimated at around $9 billion in direct income for FIFA, while stimulating global consumer spending approaching $80 billion.

Despite this huge financial momentum and the historic expansion of the tournament to include 48 teams, the most prominent investment and geopolitical question imposes itself sharply on economic tables: Why are the 2.7 billion people in India and China absent from this global economic carnival?

Why did India back out of the historic opportunity to participate in the 1950 World Cup in Brazil?

India qualified automatically after the withdrawal of Burma, Indonesia, and the Philippines, but failed to travel, citing high travel costs and limited preparation time; some circles said FIFA was reluctant to allow Indians to play barefoot.

The Indian Olympic Association preferred the Olympics and considered the World Cup a secondary tournament of little importance compared to the historic Olympic event.

Why do global investment funds prefer to pour money into Indian cricket at the expense of football?

The market value of the Indian Premier League (IPL) rose by 12.9% to a record $18.5 billion in 2025.

The Board of Control for Cricket in India distributes half of the broadcasting and sponsorship revenues equally among teams, generating $55 million annually per club.

How do weak infrastructure and lack of basic investment hinder the growth of Indian football?

Football clubs in the Indian Super League (ISL) lack central support, resulting in consecutive operating losses and failure to reach the break-even point, and therefore India has never qualified for the World Cup.

The football sector in India suffers from low attendance rates, weak infrastructure in academies, and difficulty achieving viable investment returns.

What are the details and goals of the national plan 'Vision 2047' to rescue Indian football from its crisis?

The plan aims to include India among the top 4 teams in Asia coinciding with the centenary of independence, and the All India Football Federation will develop a coach training program to improve football quality at all levels.

The federation aims to implement grassroots programs in villages to reach 35 million children in 100 villages across India, and also aims to register 1 million players and provide football education to 25 million children through the 'Football for Schools' program.

What is the state of football in China?

Football enjoys overwhelming popularity in China, and the Chinese Super League is among the most attended leagues in the world.

China has qualified for the World Cup only once, in 2002, when they exited the group stage without scoring a goal.

What are the repercussions of the major real estate debt crisis in China?

The Chinese league was linked to financing from real estate development conglomerates that faced a liquidity crisis and liquidations due to laws curbing borrowing and leverage.

Sponsorship revenues for the competition collapsed by 50% in 2020 to 308 million yuan, declaring the bankruptcy of league champion Guangzhou FC.

How did the collapse of the club owned by 'Evergrande' represent the end of the spending era in Chinese football?

Guangzhou dominated Chinese football in the past, winning seven consecutive Chinese Super League (CSL) titles from 2011 to 2017, in addition to two AFC Champions League titles.

The team was relegated to the second division in 2022 after Evergrande Real Estate, the club's owner, faced financial difficulties due to the collapse of the country's property market; the club's last title was in 2019, before it was liquidated due to inability to repay debts.

What is the impact of financial corruption cases and strict judicial rulings on the reputation of Chinese football?

In 2024, the Chinese judiciary sentenced former federation chairman Chen Xuyuan to life imprisonment for accepting bribes totaling $11.2 million.

The investigations included officials of the Super League association and resulted in long prison sentences, disrupting the investment environment and alarming donors.

How does China's 2050 plan tackle the challenge of achieving the 'Three World Cup Dreams'?

The plan is based on three stages to realize President Xi Jinping's dreams: qualifying for the World Cup, hosting it, and winning the title by 2050.

The initiative aims to open 50,000 football schools and have the Chinese men's national team become the best team in Asia.

How did the absence of the two Asian giants negatively impact FIFA's revenues from broadcast sales for the 2026 World Cup?

FIFA was forced to reduce the marketing value of broadcast rights, selling the rights to China for about $60 million instead of the targeted $300 million.

Industry sources revealed that FIFA reached an agreement with Zee Entertainment for a broadcast rights package in India for the 2026 World Cup worth $40 million.

Conclusion

While India has succeeded in turning cricket into a highly profitable investment asset attracting Wall Street private equity giants thanks to a balanced revenue distribution model and billion-dollar broadcast contracts, the road to changing consumer tastes seems long.

China's football dreams collapsed due to their organic link to the real estate financing model based on leverage and bad debts, as well as levels of administrative corruption that toppled national federation leaders and led prestigious clubs to compulsory liquidation and bankruptcy.

While FIFA is fully aware of the negative financial impact of the absence of these markets on the growth of global broadcast sales revenues and sponsorship rights for multinational corporations, the vigorous pursuit of increasing the number of teams or hinting at a 64-team World Cup to facilitate these markets' access will not be effective unless these commercial efforts are accompanied by radical local regulatory reforms to develop talent.

Sources: Argaam – Bloomberg – The Guardian – Yahoo Sports – SuperSport – SportsPro – The China Project – BMC – Crack It Today – Boston Institute of Analytics – Grokipedia – Scroll.in – Business Valuation Resources – European Union Intellectual Property Office – International Journal of Law, Policy and Globalization by IISTE

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