The French presidency is betting on two main factors regarding the fate of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been ongoing for four and a half years: first, the ongoing field shifts and the accumulated capabilities that Ukrainian forces have acquired, particularly in the field of aerial and naval drones and their ability to target key sites and others of symbolic importance far from the borders between the two countries; and second, what Paris and some European capitals see as a change in the positions of US President Donald Trump, as manifested first at the Evian G7 summit and then at last week's NATO summit in Ankara.

French and Ukrainian presidents before the start of the 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting in Paris on Monday (Reuters)

Against this backdrop of these two important shifts, an expanded summit was held Monday in Paris, bringing together 25 heads of state and government, most of them European, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron as part of the 'Coalition of the Willing'—that is, countries interested in contributing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine after military operations cease or after a peace agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow.

'Coalition of War Advocates'

The Russian reaction was not long in coming; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quick on Monday to describe the coalition as a 'coalition of war advocates, driven by deep illusions about the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on our country. This is a coalition of the deluded and those who stoke war,' adding that Russia would closely follow the aforementioned summit.

Moscow had previously warned the Europeans—whose coalition is led by the French president and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer—against deploying troops on Ukrainian soil, which it regards as hostile NATO forces. But what is new today, from the perspective of Western capitals, is that the military difficulties facing Moscow are pushing them to harden the terms of a political solution and to reject the parameters of the previous US peace plan, which made Ukraine's abandonment of the entire Donbas region, including areas not controlled by Russian forces, a condition for peace between the two sides. Macron tweeted on Monday afternoon, confirming that the 'Coalition of the Willing' would work to 'accelerate support for Ukraine, strengthen its defense, increase pressure on Russia, and build security guarantees for tomorrow,' adding that 'the unity (of Europeans) is the source of their strength, determination, and credibility.'

It was clear that Macron took advantage of the national holiday to organize the meeting. As a gesture toward the 'Coalition of the Willing,' he invited a number of its leaders to be his guests on the VIP stand to attend the traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées, which would be led by 500 soldiers from the coalition member states. The parade enjoys wide public interest and was the only one of its kind in a major democracy before President Donald Trump copied it and ordered a similar parade in Washington on US Independence Day.

French president and British prime minister during the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit to support Ukraine in Paris on Monday (AFP)

'Strategic Awakening'

Sources in the French presidency preempted the meeting by outlining the goals the leaders seek to achieve, seeing it as an indicator of the 'strategic awakening' that Europeans want in the face of Russia and vis-à-vis the United States. However, they also stressed that the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit would focus on pushing for a ceasefire and resuming peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv in parallel with work to enhance Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The 'coalition' focuses on enabling Kyiv to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

In the view of the Élysée, this must be achieved through three mechanisms: first, providing more interceptor missiles for the Patriot system, which have become scarce due to the US-Israeli-Iranian war; second, accelerating the deployment of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which rivals the American Patriot missiles; and third, working at the European level to develop alternatives to interceptor missiles through joint cooperation between Europeans and Ukrainians. After Trump told the Ukrainian president that he would enable Kyiv to produce Patriots locally, the Europeans will in turn consider such a mechanism, noting that obtaining a license to produce Patriot missiles, for example, is not free and Europeans would have to bear the cost.

German chancellor and Ukrainian president on the sidelines of the 'Paris Summit' on Monday (AFP)

Coalition for Ballistic Missile Defense

On Monday afternoon, the Élysée Palace distributed the 'Joint Declaration on the Establishment of an Integrated Coalition for Ballistic Missile Defense,' issued by the leaders of 11 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and Britain), and stated that the signatory countries, 'recognizing the growing threat posed by ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of defense capabilities in ensuring the security of the European continent, today announce the launch of the process of establishing a purely defensive coalition to counter ballistic missiles. They also express their support for its main project aimed at working tirelessly to develop an anti-ballistic missile defense capability.' The countries concerned believe 'that the protection of Europe requires a comprehensive solution consisting of the creation of an integrated missile defense system, with the aim of deterring and countering future missile threats through collective effort, technological openness, and trust-based industrial cooperation.'

A member of the French Republican Guard standing in front of the flags of the countries that participated in the 'Summit of the Willing' in Paris on Monday (AFP)

The path to that goes through 'unifying our defense industrial base, our research efforts, and our operational expertise.' The declaration outlined a set of measures and mechanisms to achieve the desired goal, akin to a 'roadmap.' According to the 11 leaders, what they are doing 'does not target any people, but aims to defend our peoples.' The signatories left the door open 'for other countries that share its principles and goals.' Macron tweeted on his X platform, saying, 'In the face of the ballistic threat, we have made a clear choice: to protect Ukraine, strengthen our collective security, and build a defensive Europe. By launching the ballistic coalition, we are enhancing the capabilities that Europe needs.'